Every time a player falls with an injury, there are multiple layers of consequences. And in a weird season like this, that’s even truer.
So, with José Quintana coming down after surgery to repair a nerve injury to his thumb, caused by a dishwashing accident, immediately, of course, we consider how the Cubs will address his absence from the rotation. But the impact of his absence will extend beyond just replacing his initial entries for as long as he’s away. It’s mostly a negative impact, of course, but there are some possibilities that it opens up.
There is also the drip effect in the bullpen as, for example, Alec Mills moves towards rotation instead of serving as a very useful pitcher in the bullpen. That leaves a place in the bullpen open for a boy of some length: an Adbert Alzolay or a Colin Rea or Jharel Cotton or maybe even Duane Underwood. Alternatively, the Cubs might decide to go with the best additional reliever, regardless of the ability to go to multiple innings like Mills, because they want to be able to keep another arm in the organization (consider a guy with no options like Underwood or a Rule 5 guy like Trevor Megill ). Perhaps this situation creates an opportunity for the Cubs keep long-term depth, even when they lost some depth in the short term.
That, in turn, brings us to the other layer of consequences when a boy gets hurt in this strange year: the list considerations.
Quintana currently ranks at not one, not two, but three relevant rosters: the expected active roster (although we know it won’t be on it on opening day), the 40-man roster, and the 60-man player pool. . Each list has different injury considerations, and each of those considerations will affect how the Cubs replace Quintana on the list with another arm.
The active part of the list is, of course, the easiest. Quintana enters the Injured List, boom, another type is added. The 40-man part is also quite Easy, because it will only depend on how long you expect Quintana to be away, and if you need another place for 40 people. If it’s going to be a long time, Quintana can go to the 45-day IL (formerly 60-day IL), which will take him off the 40 otherwise complete men for the duration of their injury. Then, you can replace your spot with someone who’s not in your 40s yet (or use that spot for an NRI guy like Jason Kipnis).
The 60-man group of players, well, that’s the tricky one. A regular The disabled list period does NOT remove Quintana from the list of 60 players. Instead, only a 45-day IL season would, and obviously if you follow that route, you can’t have Quintana again until the season is more than halfway through, even after a bit of setback at the summer (generally you are allowed a few days of recoil). * AND * once you activate Quintana, you will be back in the 60 player pool, so if you have filled it up, someone else will have to leave, and you risk losing that player forever.
Of course, the flip side of this is that if you * don’t * put Quintana on the 45-day IL, then he’ll only take one of your 60 spots without being able to participate in the great league level OR South Bend level.
It is not a great situation, however, you cut it, without pun.
For now, with 10 open positions in the 60 men and an unknown volume of other positive COVID tests / injuries in the next two weeks, the Cubs are likely to just leave things as they are now. Quintana will rest for two weeks, and then the Cubs will have a better idea of whether he can start pitching right away, or whether he’s going to be depressed for long. Until then, expect at least one (probably multiple) 60-man positions to remain open.
But that doesn’t mean the Cubs won’t add another pitcher to their 60-man pool yet; After all, this situation is precisely WHY keeping those 10 places open in the first place. The boys show up, the boys get hurt, and then you have more information available before locking a boy in his 60-man place (remember: once a boy is there, it’s really difficult / risky to get him out).
To all of these points, Sahadev Sharma writes about the ongoing replacement considerations for the Cubs:
While the Cubs have been clear, they will be looking for depth in the league, finding pitches will be a difficult task. That means they are more likely to add some length via internal options. While no one will be added to the South Bend roster at this time, four names to watch out for are Tyson Miller (who was at camp this spring with the major league club), Cory Abbott (Minor Cubs from last season ). league pitcher of the year after a strong season in Double A) Keegan Thompson (who missed most of last season after a brilliant first start and then pitched 25 1/3 innings in the Fall League from Arizona) and Jack Patterson (a senior prospect who blew up last season with a speed jump).
External moves will be available, meh depth in free agency, taking on a trade contract, but, like Sharma, I find it much less likely to proceed internally for now.
Among the names mentioned there, I instantly remembered Bryan’s tweets yesterday about Abbott:
This is an appropriate tweet, because we just missed the anniversary of the last time Cory allowed more than three hits in the beginning. June 29 last year.
He did not in his last 11 outings. In fact, he struck out more than three times as many men (79) than the punches he allowed (25).
– Cubs Outlook – Bryan Smith (@cubprospects) July 2, 2020
I understand preserving flexibility in the initial decisions of the list. But it would be surprising if, in a couple of weeks, * at least * one from Abbott, Miller, Thompson and / or Patterson is not there in South Bend for additional depth. Not only might they be necessary, but they are legitimate potential future major league pitchers who could benefit from some additional development time this year. Add the fact that Miller is already in the 40 men, and Abbott and Thompson would be eligible for Rule 5 after this year anyway, and it’s one less hurdle to consider for at least those three.
I am not happy with Quintana’s injury. The Cubs still lack a clear Major League Caliber pitch depth at the upper levels, and losing Quintana as an option for a period of time is going to hurt. But, I’ll say the void it creates to give Mills some starts (or another guy like Alzolay or Rea or Cotton), while also creating an additional place in the bullpen to explore many interesting arms the Cubs might want to keep for the next one. year while also Possibly making these youngsters more likely to have time this year at least in South Bend is a silver lining.
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