On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin took another step closer to consolidating a set of constitutional changes that would allow him to remain in power until 2036.
A nationwide vote on a package of constitutional reforms concluded Wednesday local time. The surveys have been open for a week to help reduce crowds and increase participation amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Putin has every guarantee of getting the result he wants after a massive campaign for voters to say “yes” to the changes. However, the referendum, aimed at consolidating its control of power, could end up undermining its position due to the unconventional methods used to boost participation and the dubious legal basis for voting.
FILE: Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, watches the Victory Day military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the Nazi defeat in Moscow.
(Sergei Guneyev / Host Photo Agency via AP)
Political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky said Putin’s push to hold the vote despite the ongoing pandemic reflects his potential vulnerabilities.
“Putin lacks confidence in his inner circle and is concerned about the future,” Pavlovsky said. “He wants irrefutable proof of public support.”
The vote completes a convoluted saga that began with Putin’s nation-state speech in January, when Putin first proposed constitutional changes. He offered to expand the powers of parliament and redistribute authority among branches of the Russian government, fueling speculation that he could continue to make decisions as president of parliament or as president of the State Council when his presidential term ends in 2024.
The Russian president, who has been in power for more than two decades, said he would later decide whether or not to run again in 2024. He argued that it was necessary to reset the mandate count to keep his lieutenants focused on their work.
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Putin complicated his constitutional plan by presenting it to voters even though parliamentary approval was enough to make it law. The measure was intended to show its broad support and add a democratic appearance to constitutional changes. The plan fell through weeks later when the coronavirus pandemic engulfed Russia, forcing Putin to postpone the referendum, which was originally scheduled for April 22.
The delay hampered Putin’s campaign and left his constitutional reform plan hanging as damage from the virus increased and public discontent grew. Amid the uncertainty, Putin immediately rescheduled the vote at the first signs of a slowdown in Russia’s infection rate, despite the fact that the number of confirmed new daily cases remains high.
Political analyst Ekaterina Schulmann said the Kremlin faced a difficult dilemma: holding the vote earlier would lead to accusations of jeopardizing public health for political purposes, while delaying it further increased the risk of defeat.
“The early date has the advantage of arriving soon after lifting the quarantine restrictions that made voters feel more optimistic,” he said. “And overall, people are in a better mood during the summer season.”
Schulmann argued that the Kremlin’s focus is not so much to increase overall participation, but rather to increase the attendance of public sector workers who make up Putin’s base.
Authorities have made a radical effort to persuade teachers, doctors, workers in public sector companies, and others who are paid by the state to cast votes. Reports emerged in many corners of the vast country that managers forced people to vote.
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Most observers expect the Kremlin to get away with it, regardless of the opposition’s strategies. Pavlovsky noted, however, that the unusual methods used by the authorities to increase turnout and get the result Putin wants would undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Associated Press contributed to this report..
