It is the UEFA Champions League semi-final in which no one knows for whom to root. Paris Saint-Germain and RB Leipzig are two clubs that have made a lot of enemies among football fans, but not for the way they play. Instead, it is what each club seems to represent.
PSG are one of two clubs – the other being Manchester City – to be able to. RB Leipzig are seen as a glorious marketing project for Red Bull. Whatever you think of either team or of the property, both have proven to be the very good “footballing” thing. Both are also on the verge of reaching the Champions League final and claiming their first Champions League trophy.
While I have a slight reward for being PSG as the team to go through, there really is not much value in betting on them to do so. Luckily I found three other spots to take advantage of.
All odds are through William Hill Sportsbook.
More than 2.5 goals (-160)
Oh, there will be goals, my friends. That’s something I’m pretty sure of. PSG barely managed to get through to Atalanta in the final round, needing two goalscorers to overcome a 1-0 deficit (and breaking my Atalanta +250 ticket-holding heart in the process), but they deserved the goals. Using xG, PSG outscored Atalanta 2.8-0.9 in the match, so they were a little sorry for not scoring anymore.
And given some of the chances Neymar missed, it could have been a 4-1 final.
I think we’ll see more of these chances the back of the net in this game, especially if Kylian Mbappe is healthy enough to play more than the 30 minutes he did against Atalanta. PSG became a very different team when he once arrived, and it is possible that they can get here on their own to three goals. But the chances are they won’t, which brings me to my next play.
Both teams to score (-160)
I spoke to my CBSSports.com colleague Chip Patterson over the weekend, and he referred to the betting of both teams to score as “the Mr. Rogers of gambling.” It’s true! It feels like you only have root for everyone to do well and have fun, and after the game we can all get some ice cream.
However, I do not think the chances that Leipzig will be shut down in this match are great. The team scored twice against Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals despite managing only 0.5 xG. That’s what Atletico Madrid do to you, though. You do not get many great opportunities and instead you have to rely on converting the limited opportunities you get. Leipzig did that.
I expect things to get a little more open against PSG, even if PSG themselves have been defensively excellent. They managed six clean sheets in nine UCL matches, but four of them came against Galatasaray and Club Brugge. In five matches against teams from the top five leagues in Europe, PSG allowed 1.0 goals and 1.24 xG per game. Still good numbers, but nothing that I like that Leipzig will not beat once. Of course, that is also thanks in part to my confidence in Leipzig manager Julian Nagelsmann to figure out how best to attack PSG.
Neymar To Score (+100)
Neymar did not score against Atalanta, and he should have. He had six shots overall, with two on target, good enough for an xG of 1.0. It was the first time he started a UCL game this season and did not find the back of it.
The trend will start again on Tuesday. Neymar was given a chance to change things around. Atalanta did not have a good day today, often losing his footing on the muddy pitch. He will also be the best player on the field against Leipzig. Getting even money odds scored on him feels almost like stealing.
So who wins PSG vs. RB Leipzig? And where does all the bet value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the PSG vs. RB Leipzig’s money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European football model which is up 13.800 percent.
