The deal is happening, and the name is. Chicago Cubs U Dervish and Victor Keratini trade with San Diego Pedres and pitcher Zach Davis for a big potential package.
This is not the package you were thinking about when the rumors started this morning:
Sources confirm dennistlin, @ Pj_moonie And to me that whole deal is U Darwish and Victor Keratini going to Pedres and Cubes with Zach Davis and prospects Reginald Presidado, Owen CC, Yeson Santana, Ismail Mena.
– Sahadev Sharma (SahdevSharma) December 29, 2020
Davis is more about salary involved and wants to move the ticker from one team to another, so when I’m not Ignore To him, it doesn’t focus too much in terms of trade.
Make no mistake about the nature of the trade: it’s a pure “sell” trade. He is pushing the player with a significant contract into the deal to get as young a future value as possible (when the contract is full). In that regard, I just didn’t see it coming to a win-win year ahead of the Cubs in 2021, and when you can try resetting your roster for 2022 and beyond. That doesn’t mean the Cubs won’t target it any other way – I don’t think they’ve been tanking for years, folks – but I really thought any return to the Darwish trade in 2022 would be very clearly effective. Absent Others Trade with these prospects, that Certainly Will not happen. These are very long term pieces.
You can see the rolling updates here as the day goes on. Fantastic, un-fun ride. Small bits on the probabilities there as a starting point. The shorter version is that Presido is a 17-year-old shortstop and a 2019 top IFA signer, Casey is an 18-year-old outfielder who was Pedres ‘second rounder this year, Santa’s 19-year-old shortstop is the future in Pedres’ load system and May 17 Is the center fielder of the year who was the biggest IFA signer in 2019.
These on-paper prospects are good, and we’ll find out soon. But all are teenagers, and we’re starting a year with almost no meaningful scouting. It is surprising to me that the chicks demanded this compensation. I mean, they wouldn’t have had a choice if he was dead in the darvish (sigh) business, but these are high-risk, high-side blind types. All four. There’s a significant risk here when you’re moving a player as valuable as Darvish, not to mention something about the inclusion of keratin.
Let me put aside the loss of Darvish and Keratini for a moment and unpack a little on the fly.
In the long run, the move will establish cubs for a weighted farm system by this time of year next year. If there is internal progress that we expect (based on development investments), there is another draft IFA class with Christian Hernandez, and if there is no attrition elsewhere, yes, this system could be stacked by the next season. That’s good for the whole reason, because you’ll remember well.
Theoretically there are now more dollars available to spend for acquisitions for both the 2021 season, the upcoming 2022 class and the internal extension. Cubs already needed to add another starter, and Davis replaces Darwish on the roster, which is necessary. While catching up, Cubes could add a p ve back-up to join Contraras, pick up PJ Higgins or Taylor Gushu, or maybe even think Miguel Amaya could get a shot at the end of the year?
That said, the Cubs are massively downgraded to 2021 (and 2022-23, indeed!), Unless the dollar is deployed to bring some really effective short-term pieces to this frustrated market. There is no way around it. The rotation, right now, is awful. And Keratini is really good. A better “back-ups” in the game.
In particular, much remains to be said about Darvesh’s departure. How he got injured in his first year with the Cubs, trying to figure out what the issue is through absurd pain, rebuilt himself throughout 2019, and became one of the most impressive pitchers of baseball. From mid-2019 during this past season. Not only was he a terrific performer for the Cubes, but he was also a great teammate, good guy, entertaining Twitter follower, and fun as hell to watch. Losing a package, in that player, is stinging.
More on the full scope of trade later. I’m still spinning a little.
