Christopher Nolan’s box office hit doesn’t need New York or Los Angeles to open.
There’s no shortage of detractors on social media, but Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet” has plenty of reason to maintain its national opening on September 3. Okay: if Warner Bros. had to wait for New York and Los Angeles to open, that date would be highly unlikely. Those regions are traditionally so key that many movies initially open only in those two cities, but with “Tenet” we can reasonably expect the opposite: it will open almost everywhere except in major metropolitan areas.
As Warner Bros. announced, “Tenet” will be shown in “select” cities. Not all. They know that initially it will not play everywhere, including the two main markets in the country. Given COVID-19, everything is subject to change, but today that asterisk must follow any long-term planning. Nolan’s film will be released in 50 territories from August 26-28, including Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Korea and Australia; Other major countries like Russia and Japan follow soon after. China also approved the release of the film, albeit without a date.
Theaters already operate in most of these countries; In the United States today, 45 states allow indoor movie theaters to operate (with safety precautions) in all or most places. Due to the lack of new products, most have not yet done so. To avoid opening on September 3, governments would have to close them, and that’s much harder to do than delaying permission to open.
We speak to exhibition sources in some of the riskier regions wondering if they’ll make it to the date, but it’s clear that most of the nation’s cinemas will open as allowed. They are not irresponsible people, but the survival of their companies depends on this. And they will play “Tenet”.
“Antebellum”
Most of the US population now has indoor movie theaters where “Tenet” can be seen on September 3, and most of them have drive-in movie theaters. Even at COVID-19 hot spots like Atlanta and Houston, indoor theaters are open; The areas that prohibit theater openings today could change.
Of the three main national circuits, Cinemark has already opened some locations. Regal’s website targets August 21, and AMC has said it expects to open in late August for most theaters, if not sooner. General releases should begin on August 21 with “Unhinged” (Solstice), “Antebellum” (Lionsgate), “Words On Bathroom Walls” (Roadside Attractions) and a remake of “Inception” (Warner Bros.). Everyone is expected to play with important marketing support and a comprehensive version, as always. Wait for other movies to be available.
That is in three weeks. Making this date will be the first step to launch “Tenet” 13 days later, on September 3. More theaters could wait, using that movie to reopen on September 3. Restricted regions will put a lot of pressure to get permission, and we should expect practical initial reports to influence decisions. The hope is that the two weeks leading up to “Tenet” will create a forward momentum (also: one of the reasons why foreign territories will get the film first).
We compiled an exhaustive list of the opening rules of the theater now in force; Our sources include extensive research by the National Association of Theater Owners, in addition to external verification. In addition, gross revenue from theaters opened last weekend showed that indoor theaters were operating in more than 40 states.
Based on these data, only Arizona, California, New Jersey, and New York face state theater closings. Arizona has a reopening date of August 9; the others do not have an appointment. Some urban areas like Seattle and Detroit are also not approved.
Most states have capacity limitations. Some range from 25 percent to 66 percent, per audience; others have a specific maximum, regardless of the size of the auditorium. Various rules of social distancing are at play almost everywhere.
“Beginning”
Warner Bros.
Altogether, even if all of California and New York couldn’t be opened and some other areas besides, more than 80 percent of the population would still have the potential to see “Tenet” in an indoor theater. Not that all viewers within those numbers will attend; Some indeterminate part of the audience, probably substantial, will not return even if it is hailed as the best film ever made.
Again: this is all the way it is now. That’s the problem. The past six months show that making firm predictions is silly. But you are also sure that it will not happen.
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