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The positive cases of the new coronavirus, which according to official data exceed 200,000, “are 10 to 20 times higher”, indicates today a study carried out by experts in epidemiology according to which the Government of Rome has based health action.
“Currently, between 3% and 4% of the population can be infected, that is, four million people, so the number of positive cases capable of transmitting the infection must be multiplied by 10 or 20. We are talking about numbers much older, “explained Stefano Merler of the Bruno Kessler Foundation.
The foundation’s study was prepared jointly with the Italian Higher Institute of Health (ISS), a document that will serve as the basis for the Italian government to gradually ease the restrictions, starting May 4.
According to Merler, who spoke at the weekly press conference held on the ISS, people infected with covid-19 but asymptomatic can reach values between 4% and 7% of the population.
And it is based on the study that the Giuseppe Conte government intends to start easing the restriction measures as of May 4, with the opening of industrial activities that, according to the executive, will allow the return to work of approximately 4.5 million people.
The opening, already claimed by various sectors, of commercial establishments, restaurants and services, such as beauty salons, was postponed.
In view of the study’s recommendations, the Government has decreed the final closure of all schools until the next school year.
For Merler, if schools reopen, the “R” rate, the epidemiological term that defines the number of people that an infected person can infect, would go from the current one, below 1 in all regions, to 1.3.
“The curve of the covid-19 epidemic continues to decrease substantially in the number of symptoms and cases in all regions,” said ISS President Sílvio Brusaferro, following Merler’s warnings.
“However, people should know that we are in the midst of the epidemic and that the virus continues to circulate, although there has been a decrease in cases and patients in intensive care,” he added.
Brusaferro emphasized that Italy is “still very far” from the so-called “group immunity”, which generally occurs when approximately 60% of the population is affected.
According to the president of the ISS, the institution estimates, on the other hand, that of the more than 27,000 people who died due to the new coronavirus, “84% suffered from more than two or three diseases.”
Brusaferro further explained that children under the age of 15 “are 66% less susceptible” to contracting the virus than adults between 15 and 65 years, while “adults over 65 are 47% more susceptible than individuals” in the age group between 15 and 64 “.
Globally, according to a report by the AFP news agency, the covid-19 pandemic has already claimed more than 227,000 deaths and infected nearly 3.2 million people in 193 countries and territories. About 908,000 patients were considered cured.
To combat the pandemic, governments sent 4.5 billion people home (more than half the world’s population), ended non-essential trade and dramatically reduced air traffic, paralyzing entire sectors of the world economy.
With the decline in new patients in intensive care and contagion, some countries have begun to develop plans to reduce confinement and, in some cases, to alleviate various measures.
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