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Democrat Joe Biden has a bigger lead over Trump than Hillary did in 2016. The number of undecided is also lower.
The predictions point this out clearly: The United States can now elect the oldest president in its history. Democrat Joe Biden, who turns 78 on the 20th, remains a huge favorite, with polls giving him an 85% chance of victory, compared to just 15% for Republican Donald Trump, 74.
The present day. But like that distant June 6, 1944, it only marked the beginning of the turning point of World War II alongside the allies, and not the end of the conflict with the Nazis, which just arrived on May 8 of the year. following, also the day of the American elections will only mark the beginning of the end of the electoral act. Why? Because the conclusion of the vote will take days, or even weeks, due to the delay in the counting of the first votes, which this year already broke a record (read alongside). None of this will be true in a case: if there is an avalanche of votes for a single candidate, but on that, nobody dares to bet.
Trump constantly returns
Apparently, the chance that Trump will win today is less than it was in 2016, when he was crowned by surprise as the 45th American president. There, the Five Thirty Eight poll’s prediction model gave Trump a 29% chance of winning, a percentage that’s capped at 10% this year. Four years ago, Democrat Hillary Clinton had a 3.8% lead in opinion polls, but that margin dropped to just two points, the candidate was stuck in the margin of error and lost the election. Can the surprise be repeated? Obviously. But it would be a surprise, if that’s even more possible: Today, Biden’s lead over Trump outweighs more, nearly seven percentage points (the Real Clear Politics national average of ten polls). Furthermore, the number of undecided is lower: in 2016, there was a 12% block of undecided, but today it will be only a small slice of 5%.
So where do Trump’s chances of victory go? For 10 benchmark states in which nothing has yet been decided (see infographics), but in many of them Biden is ahead in intentions. See Pennsylvania (worth 20 votes in the Electoral College). If Biden wins there, his chances of becoming president increase to 19 out of 20, according to the Five Thirty Eight statistical model. If Trump surprises and wins this workers’ state, he becomes a favorite with five options out of six. The same is true in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, or Nevada.
A Trump victory will always go down a narrow and unforeseen path. First, the Republican millionaire needs Florida: His fetish state is worth 29 electoral votes, but now, and for a long time, he is tending toward his rival Biden. Then Trump must guarantee victory where Republicans have historically won (Texas, Iowa, Ohio, which remain undefined today) and must win undecided territories like Georgia and North Carolina. But you still have more to do and to complete the minimum sum of 270 votes in the Electoral College, you have two alternatives: repeat the path of 2016 and win some states of the so-called industrial belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota) or surprise in the West ( Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado).
Neither of these paths is easy, so the big favorite is Biden. Strictly speaking, the Democrat, who will predictably be a transitional rather than a transformational president, bridging the gap for the new generation of leaders (his alternate is Kamala Harris; the race for 2024 is also about to begin), he just needs that today . nothing abnormal happens.
polarization and denunciation
But one thing seems certain, Trump will always contest the election. And, if it sees that it is losing, it will claim, as it did previously, that there was fraud in the mail ballots, preferably in any state with a Republican governor, such as Florida, Ohio, Georgia or Arizona, and will ask the governors not to certify votes. until “fraudulent newsletters” are removed.
In the most polarized elections in history, the outcome will have consequences for decades: global democracy and Western progress, transatlantic alliances, superpower relations and the climate emergency, all of this, and not just US domestic politics, is in Game. Internally, the next president will set the agenda for the fight against covid-19, which the United States is losing, being the country most punished by the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the fight for racial justice, gender equality and distribution fair of wealth. .
QUESTION AND ANSWER
When will we know the results of the elections?
Disappoint those looking forward to an exciting election night. Due to the pandemic situation, around 100 million of the more than 150 million voters voted in advance, some in person, others by mail, which will delay voting, not hours, but days.
Can the postal vote generate fraud?
The risk is minimal. The system can only record delays and losses. In the case of delays, in some states it is not a problem, because the law allows the count until a few days after Election Day, cases in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, as long as the envelope has a 3rd or earlier stamp.
Is it possible that the choice should be decided by the Supreme Court?
The hypothesis is real, since Trump threatens to appeal if the result does not please him. In 2000, the Supreme Court validated the cease of the vote in Florida, deciding 36 days later the victory of George W. Bush (Republican), with the advantage of one vote, over Al Gore (Democrat).
Are only Donald Trump and Joe Biden candidates?
The Federal Electoral Commission registers 1,225 candidates, almost all of them limited to one state. The veteran Jerry Leon Carrol appears in all of them since 1980. The closest candidate to the greats is the Libertarian Party (Jo Jorgensen, 63, professor of Psychology), third political force. The predecessor, Gary Johnson, won 3% of the popular vote in 2016. Today, rapper Kanye West, a former Trump supporter, is threatening to take some black votes from Biden in 16 states.
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