Presumptive Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden
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Donald John Trump Trump’s second term plans remain a mystery to the Republican Party Trump to hold an outdoor rally in New Hampshire on Saturday Eighty-eight years of debt mercy MORE for 5 points in the state of Pennsylvania’s battlefield, according to a new survey.
The latest The Trafalgar Group poll finds Biden at 48 percent and Trump at 42.7 percent. The poll found that 6.4 percent of voters said they would vote for someone else and 3 percent are undecided.
Trump won Pennsylvania by 1.3 points in 2016. He was the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since 1988.
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The Trafalgar survey is in line with other recent Pennsylvania surveys. Biden leads there by 6.5 points on the RealClearPolitics average.
Recent Trafalgar polls on other battlefields show a tighter race for the White House than other pollsters have found.
Trafalgar found that Trump led Biden between 45.5 and 44.6 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan, Trafalgar put Biden ahead by about 1 point.
Trafalgar’s group evaluates its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or so-called timid Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president. The company isn’t disclosing how it represents those voters, although in 2016 they did so by asking voters who they believed their neighbors might be supporting.
Trafalgar pollster Robert Cahaly told The Hill that he believes there are more “shy” voters of Trump in 2020 than in 2016. Trafalgar was the only pollster to poll to find Trump leading in Michigan before Day of the Elections in 2016.
Trafalgar’s survey of 1,062 likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted between June 29 and July 2 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
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