Late on election night 2016, it was Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that turned Donald Trump upside down and put him in the White House, thanks to late-decision voters who went his way, and large margins among people who wanted change.
Today, the vast majority of voters in these two states say things are going badly in the US. They think Joe Biden would do a better job of treating coronavirus by significant margins, and wash every edge that Mr. Trump has on the economy. And now that I look back, relatively few voters in these states say that the Trump presidency has gone as they expected – more saying that it has gone worse than better.
And so Biden today leads both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by six points in each. He cuts the margins of Mr. Trump with the White, non-fellow voters who have been an important part of the Trump base. He is leading among independents – a group that last for Mr. Trump went – and even peeling off a few Republicans who think things are not going well in the US.
But voters in these states have changed their minds before, and the outcome is anything but certain. For one, Biden’s upcoming vice presidential election has the potential to move things around, as nearly half of his constituents say it’s important to them.
The president is getting negative marks for treating the coronavirus outbreak in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as in the other city-state states we have polded so far. While most parents in each think that schools do not have to do a complete overhaul, most do not think the president is doing everything he can to combat the outbreak.
Biden suggests that it is seen as better able to treat the virus.
Two-thirds do not like how the president treats himself personally, and he loses them by more than four to one.
And Biden is seen by more than understanding her needs and concerns.
Among the supporters of both candidates, most say their support is very strong, and they express enthusiasm to vote on this year. Those who did not vote in 2016 are now more likely to support Biden than Mr. Trump. The race of any state would be closer without these new voters.
Economy vs COVID
Here, as in other states, it is not the economy as much as the coronavirus: views on the pandemic are more strongly linked to voice than economic views are. Biden wins three out of four voters who worry about getting coronavirus; Mr. Trump wins nine out of 10 voters who do not care at all. The problem for the president is that more voters are very worried about the virus than not.
Those who say the Wisconsin outbreak is a crisis are voting for Biden in even greater numbers than those who say the economy is very bad. The small group that thinks the outbreak is not much of a problem back Mr. Trump in larger numbers than voters who say the state’s economy is good.
Indeed, among Wisconsin voters who say Mr. Trump would do a better job than Biden in dealing with the economy, 87% currently support Mr. Trump. That may seem like a lot, but the 13% he misses is important, considering the race is competitive and his campaign emphasizes handling the economy. In contrast, Biden wins 98% of voters who say he would do better than Mr. Trump on the economy.
Bid his running mate
Biden is expected to announce his running mate soon, and it could affect the race, as about half of those who vote for him or think about doing so say the choice is important. It seems to be a little more important for those who are less strong in their support of him than it is for the most devoted part of his base. Of those who did not vote, but who say they can consider him, seven in 10 say the election of vice president is important.
Campaign events
Biden announced that he will not go to Milwaukee to receive the Democratic nomination, and his supporters agree that he should not hold public campaign events there. Nearly nine in 10 Biden supporters in Wisconsin say it is too risky for him to hold events in their state because of the coronavirus outbreak.
Trump voters, who are less concerned about the coronavirus, feel very differently about their campaign in public. In both states, about two-thirds of Mr. Trump that her candidate should hold public events.
In Wisconsin, the more enthusiastic Trump voters are to vote on this November, the more likely they are to want Mr. Trump Campaign Events Will Hold: Eight in 10 Trump voters who are very enthusiastic about votes want him to hold events. For Biden, that is not the case. Most of his supporters, despite their enthusiasm for voting, do not think he should hold events.
Most of the supporters of each candidate think that their candidate is currently campaigning the right amount.
Assess the president
How do people in these two states who were drafted into Republicans years ago feel back at the presidency of Mr. Trump – is it going better or worse than she expected, or almost as they thought it would?
We find striking polarization in these evaluations, as most voters land at both extremes of the scale. Some say it happens as they expected. In Pennsylvania, nearly half of voters say it is going worse than expected, including 34% who say it is going much worse. On the other hand, 35% say things are going better than expected, including 23% who say much better. Only 20% say it is going as expected.
For those who say it’s getting better, it’s about the economy in both states: nine out of 10 of these voters cite its downfall in the economy as a major factor that made it better. In Pennsylvania, the second most common factor is mentioned, at six in 10, the way Mr. Trump speaks and communicates.
And in it we find another example of polarization. When we asked voters who said it was going worse than expected why they felt that way, their top factors included the same item: the way he speaks and communicates. The way he treats coronavirus and race ratios are also cited by about nine in 10.
Post
While the president continues to worry about mail-to-mail voting and Democrats worry about the Postal Service, Pennsylvania represents three to one, and Wisconsinites by four to one, thinking it should be easier, rather than harder, to vote by mail. But the president’s voters can get his message across: Republicans generally oppose making it easier to vote by mail and instead prefer to keep the system as it is. (These states need absent votes with no apology.)
What can really affect the way ballots are tabulated is that Democrats are much more likely to say they would rather vote by mail than Republicans are.
If – and it is a big if – people follow with their preferences, the personal vote count will be older, more conservative and Republican and have more voters who are non-college; the post count in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be younger, and have more Democrats. It may take longer to count the latter, and we could see big shifts in the mood as returns come in.
A closer look at the horse race
Biden is doing better in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania than Democrats did in 2016 with White men and White women. In Pennsylvania, he does better than Hillary Clinton among white voters with a college degree – he leads by double digits.
In Wisconsin, Biden does better among white voters without college degrees than Clinton did, he cut Mr. Trump’s lead with them and dragged Mr. Trump by 10 points, while Mr. Trump won them in 2016 by 28 points.
In both states, independent voters are breaking for Biden. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost among independent voters in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Although a majority of Republicans think things are going badly in America, they are the least likely partisan group to feel this way, because about four in 10 of them in each state say things are going at least a little better.
And while there are not many crossover voices in this very partisan race, this view seems to be related to what small edge Biden gains from it. In Wisconsin, 8% of Republicans vote for him, with only 2% of Democrats voting for Mr. Trump. And there are Republicans who say things are going badly where Biden gets some of this crossover support: 10% in Pennsylvania and 14% in Wisconsin vote for Biden.
Schools
Few in these states want schools to reopen as normal. In Pennsylvania, most parents of school-age children do not favor schools that return to normal full-time classes, instead want to stay closed or have at least limited opening hours, and three-quarters of them say the Trump administration is putting pressure on schools to to reopen.
In Pennsylvania, fracking is a divisive issue. Voters in Pennsylvania are equally divided over support as opposed to it, largely along party lines. Republicans are broadly in favor and Democrats are largely against it. The two candidates almost even run over who would do a better job on oil and gas exploration, including fracking: 45% say Mr. Trump will and 42% say Biden, also closely tied to partisanship.
And there’s a classic old question which candidate would you rather eat than have a drink with. Given the circumstances of the outbreak and social distance, we asked it differently this week: with which candidate would you rather have a video conference? The burglary cuts closely with the mood. But 19% in Pennsylvania said no one, including a third of independents.
These surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between 4-7 August 2020. They are based on representative samples from 1,009 registered voters in Wisconsin and 1,225 in Pennsylvania. Wrong margins for registered voters: Wisconsin +/- 3.7 points, Pennsylvania +/- 3.7 points.
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