The national environment is toxic enough that Senate Republicans, who currently hold a three-seat majority, no longer have a significant advantage in their quest to maintain control of the chamber next year. Democrats have built runways in states previously considered at stake and put the new states firmly on the map, widening their path to majority and potential unified government control in 2021.
POLITICO’s Election Forecast is a long-term qualitative examination of the political landscape, from the presidential campaign to the congressional district level. It is based on continuous interviews with strategists and agents, surveys and other data flows, and the electoral and demographic trends that drive the 2020 campaign. It is a more deliberative approach than a statistical model, which can be useful for cutting surveys and other data sources, but can also change from day to day with little justification for changes.
Since the first few weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, Trump’s standing with voters has suffered, with most disapproving of his handling of the emergency. But with Americans more dissatisfied than ever after four months since the coronavirus became a dominant force in the country, and with the same time frame until Election Day, the shift to Democrats is real and lasting. It is not irreversible.
The signs are obvious: The Trump campaign is running ads in states it easily won in 2016, such as Georgia and Ohio. Senate Republicans Are Not Just Defending Vulnerable seats in states like Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina are also shrinking in places like Iowa and Montana.
Meanwhile, Trump’s predominant advantages, money, and the pulpit of the presidency, are eroding. Biden’s fundraising has outstripped Trump’s in the past two months, though the Trump campaign maintains a cash lead. Trump poll numbers on the coronavirus and civil unrest related to racial injustice are constantly under water, suggesting that Americans believe It has failed to lead the two dominant problems facing the country.
It could all add up to a potentially disastrous November for Republicans from top to bottom if the president’s figures don’t recover. There is still time for that to happen, and a plausible path for Trump to win a majority of the Electoral College and the Republican Party to maintain the Senate. But it has become much less likely.
Electoral College
The most consistent prognosis changes are four unique states moving to “Lean Democratic”: Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Adding those four to Biden’s column, along with bluer states, would put the Democrat in 268 electoral votes, just short of the majority needed to secure the presidency.
Michigan and Pennsylvania are the second and fourth largest states that Trump moved to the Republican column in 2016, and along with Wisconsin, which remains a shakeup, They have been at the center of the Democrats’ strategy to regain the presidency. Biden had double-digit leads in all three states in the most recent high-quality polls, from The New York Times and Siena College, but most observers see Wisconsin as the most Republican of the three.
Nevada and New Hampshire were states that Hillary Clinton led in 2016, and with Biden posting bigger leads against Trump, they have strayed further from the president’s reach.
The remaining states in the launch column are Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, along with two competitive Congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are divided by district. In each of those places, recent public and private polls have shown that Biden leads Trump, although it is too early to say that the Democrat is a major favorite.
Meanwhile, as Biden’s leadership over Trump has grown in recent months, the list of battlefields has expanded. The Trump campaign is now spending significant resources on states that the President comfortably led in 2016: Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio.
All three are still classified as “slim Republicans” in POLITICO’s forecast, as polls show the two candidates side by side, even with Biden opening up a considerable national advantage. If these are states that leave on Election Day, it would essentially exclude Trump’s path to a second term.
Trump’s advertising spending also includes small purchases in Minnesota and New Mexico, two states that Clinton led. Minnesota is still classified as Lean Democratic; It is not difficult to imagine Trump winning if he improves his national position. New Mexico is rated a likely Democrat.
Senate
Republicans entered the 2020 Senate election cycle with increased exposure, including special elections, control 23 of the 35 seats on the ballot this fall, but with some significant advantages. The Republican Party has a majority of three seats, but only two of the seats held by the Republican Party this year are in the states that Clinton led in 2016. Meanwhile, there are also two Democratic senators from Trump states for reelection. .
But the race for control of the Senate is now close to a coin flip. Democrats now have discernible clues in Arizona and Colorado. Retired astronaut Mark Kelly has consistently outpointed Senator-designate Martha McSally in the Arizona special election.
After winning last week’s Democratic primary in Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper begins with an advantage over Republican Senator Cory Gardner. Gardner is a skilled politician, but he is running in a state where Trump won just 43 percent of the vote in 2016. While the forecast currently leaves the race in the launch column, Gardner is in extreme danger.
In Iowa, Republican Senator Joni Ernst is no longer a major favorite to win a second term. A Des Moines Register / Mediacom poll last month showed his Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield, and the race is now a shakeup.
Montana also joins the launch ranks. Democratic Governor Steve Bullock has earned high marks for his handling of the pandemic, and even polls showing Trump with a solid lead in the state have Bullock leading or tied with Republican Senator Steve Daines.
With a career of promotion moving slightly toward the Democratic column, and two states leaning toward the Republican Party pushing the highly competitive launch ranking, Republicans currently have or are favored to win 48 seats, just one more than the Democrats. Most are up for grabs in all five launch races: Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina.
House
As the national environment turned to the Democrats, their control over the House grew stronger. The latest ratings have 216 seats in the Democratic column, just two fewer than most.
The Democrats’ online fundraising machine has enabled the party to raise money at a rapid pace, apparently unhindered by the nation’s economic slowdown. As a result, several once-vulnerable House Democrats, including Katie Porter and Josh Harder in California: they are much safer than when the electoral cycle began.
Republicans would have to run the table at launch races, as they did in the May special election for a seat in the Los Angeles suburbs. Now-Rep. Mike Garcia’s better-than-expected performance on that special caused some Republicans to brag about his chances of getting the House back.
But given the enthusiasm of Democratic voters to stand against Trump in November, a significant realignment of the current political dynamic will be necessary to seriously jeopardize most Democrats.
Governors
Given the unprecedented challenges of the pandemic, the races of the governor are more likely to be influenced by dynamics within the state than by national factors. That’s the case in Vermont, where Republican Governor Phil Scott’s announcement that he will seek another term in Montpelier favors him to win, despite the state’s orientation in federal elections.
In North Carolina, the most populous state holding gubernatorial elections this year, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has taken a considerable lead in polls about Republican Lt. Dan Forest, and the race is now tilting toward Democrats.
