We are moving on to the semi-finals of the NHL conference, which will actually bring us into what looks like hockey season, as players usually start arriving for informal reasons for camp before the end of August and beginning of September.
Now, of course, everyone who plays hockey is in a bubble, with the Eastern Conference set up in Toronto and the Western Conference teams playing in Edmonton. For these series, the higher seeds have “advantage home ice” – they get the definitive line change and wear their dark jerseys – for Games 1, 2, 5 and 7. Times given for these games are all Eastern, and the NHL however, to announce start times for games 5-7 in all four series.
What should we expect in this playoff series of the second round? Here’s a look, in order the series will get underway.
(W2) COLORADO AVALANCHE VS. (W3) DALLAS STARS
Game 1: Saturday, 8 p.m.
Game 2: Monday, 9:45 p.m.
Game 3: Wednesday 10:30
Game 4: Friday, 10:00 p.m.
* Game 5: Sunday, August 30th
* Game 6: Monday, August 31st
* Game 7: Wednesday, September 2nd
Season Series
November 1: Stars 2, AVALANCHE 1
November 5: STARS 4, Avalanche 1
December 28: STARS 3, Avalanche 2 (SO)
January 14: Stars 3, AVALANCHE 2 (OT)
August 5: Avalanche 4, Stars 0 (round-robin at Edmonton)
Avalanche: Colorado outscored the Arizona Coyotes by a total of 22-8 margin in a demolition of five games in the first round, including back-to-back 7-1 games to close out the series. In addition to Colorado’s explosive offensive, with a power play that has clicked on a league best 30.6% since coming to the bubble, Philipp Grubauer has a .937 saving percentage and 1.49 goals against average in six starts this summer. Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri, and Mikko Rantanen have played a role, with 13 goals between them in eight games, and unbelievably, apart from MacKinnon, there is an argument to be made that Matt Calvert has been the Avs’ best player. If there’s a weakness here, it’s defensive depth.
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Stars: The overall margin of 21-15 for the first round against the Calgary Flames was not as impressive as what the Avalanche did, but Dallas strongly excludes the first round after Joe Pavelski’s goal of Game 3 and the overthrow of Alex Radulov to ban. A 2-1 victory over the Flames in Game 4 was followed by a 7-3 draw in Game 5 that included four goals from Denis Gurianov. It’s amazing that the Stars have gone as well as they have with no goals from Roopen Hintz and Tyler Seguin, and just two from Jamie Benn in nine bubble games. Anton Khudobin makes the most of his chance in net.
Prediction: The Stars got off to a rough start against Calgary, but really put it together in the last three games of the series. Colorado has more skill, but Dallas is no slouch here, and what they miss at the top of the lineup, they make up for with depth. There is also no significant edge in the goalie matchup. Grubauer is a notch better than Khudobin, but it’s easy to see someone coming from a heater to make a difference here. Scored in 7.
(E2) TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING VS. (E4) BOSTON BROWN
Game 1: Sunday, 8 p.m.
Game 2: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m.
Game 3: Wednesday, 8 p.m.
Game 4: Friday 7:30 p.m.
* Game 5: Sunday, August 30th
* Game 6: Tuesday, September 1st
* Game 7: Wednesday, September 2nd
Season Series
October 17: Lightning 4, BROWN 3 (SO)
December 12: LIGHTNING 3, Bruins 2
March 3: Bruins 2, LIGHTNING 1
March 7: lightning 5, BROWN 3
August 5: Lightning 3, Bruins 2 (round-robin by Toronto)
Lightning: The last time Tampa Bay won a game by more than one goal was March 7 in Boston, a 5-3 game, but much of Lightning’s struggle to do everything comfortably in the bubble comes down to Joonas Korpisalo playing the best hockey of his life. And even against a goalie who posted a .941 save percentage in the Blue Jackets playoff run, Tampa Bay knocked out Columbus in five games. This is not the same team you’ve been thinking of without Steven Stamkos for the past three years, but any lineup with Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman in it, and Andrei Vasilevskiy in the net, should be considered a serious supporter.
Bruins: Playoff Krejci is real and he is spectacular. This is meant to be when hockey is the toughest, but David Krejci really has a higher score in his playoff career than he did in the regular season, including three goals and six assists in eight games this summer. Brad Marchand only took a solitary small penalty this summer, and after going 0-3 in the round robin and splitting the first two games against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Bruins looked like they were capable of the turn to pull away in that series. Tuukka Rask’s exit from the postseason would be a huge blow for most teams, but Boston has Jaroslav Halak, who had a really good season as a backup to begin with and has continued to perform since taking over from the start of the job.
Prediction: Before the season, this seemed like a pretty solid bet to be a series of second-round picks, and pushing to guess who would win, you would probably have just gone into seven games with the team with home ice. But there is no hot ice here, so how do you find it between two absolutely loaded teams with solid goaltending? It’s the kind of series that comes down to who makes mistakes when it counts the most. For all this Lightning team has done, they have not proven a skill to get over the hump against the best of the best. Despite her seed here, that’s what Boston is. Bruins in 7.
(W1) VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS US. (W5) VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Game 1: Sunday, 10:30 p.m.
Game 2: Tuesday, 9:45 p.m.
Game 3: Thursday, 9:45 p.m.
Game 4: Saturday, 8 p.m.
* Game 5: Monday, August 31st
* Game 6: Tuesday, September 1st
* Game 7: Thursday, September 3rd
Season Series
December 15: GOLDEN KNIGHTS 6, Canucks 3
December 19: CANUCKS 5, Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Golden Knights: This team is stupidly good, and Robin Lehner did not even have to play his best in net for the Golden Knights to appear as the favorites of Stanley Cup. Ditto for Max Pacioretty, Vegas’ leading regular season scorer, who has one goal and one assist in four playoff games. To be honest, Chicago had no issue in the playoffs, but even the Golden Knights threw them away with the kind of ease they should have, even if three of their victories by one goal were in the Lord’s whip. Vegas received points from each of its skaters except Nick Holden, Chandler Stephenson and Zach Whitecloud in the first round.
Canucks: It’s not that the Canucks did not deserve to exclude the defending Stanley Cup champions, but it did not hurt Vancouver that Blues goalkeeper Jordan Binnington seized that exact moment to become a pumpkin. Jacob Markstrom is able to steal the series, and the young core of Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and Elias Pettersson looks fantastic. It would help a lot for Vancouver to get Tyler Toffoli back from a lower body injury, but it would help even more if he was a defender, because outside of rookie Quinn Hughes, that blue line is thin for this challenge.
Prediction: The Canucks are not the lowest remaining seed in the playoffs, but the circumstances between them and the Islanders, the other team to advance to the second round after having players in the best of the five qualifiers, are different – New York has for a long time this season looked like a playoff team before a long battle left them almost on the outside. There is also the fact that Vancouver has never won a cup, while the Islanders obviously have four. Vegas also did not win a Cup, though, after this series, the Golden Knights would have to be one step closer to taking on Lord Stanley in just their third year as a team. Golden Knights in 5.
(E1) PHILADELPHIA FLYERS VS. (E6) ISLANDERS OF NEW YORK
Game 1: Monday 7.00
Game 2: Wednesday, 3:00 p.m.
Game 3: Thursday, 7:00 p.m.
Game 4: Saturday, noon
* Game 5: Monday, August 31st
* Game 6: Wednesday, September 2nd
* Game 7: Thursday, September 3rd
Season Series
October 27: ISLANDERS 5, Flyers 3
November 16: ISLANDERS 4, Flyers 3 (SO)
February 11: ISLANDERS 5, Flyers 3
Flyers: Alain Vigneault is now 4-for-4 in getting teams to the semifinals of the conference in his first year on the job. He lost in the second round to the Canadiens and Canucks in 1998, but led the Rangers in 2014 to the Stanley Cup Final. The characters here are mixed, because although Carter Hart plays like the goalkeeper Philadelphia has been looking for for decades, it has been a pretty blah bubble experience for Claude Giroux. The only Flyers player to appear in all nine bubble games and place a positive xGF% is Sean Couturier, and that will not cut it. While he may have been good, the concept of “Ivan Provorov 25 minutes a game” is not exactly inspiring, but then there is the reality of another concept, “Matt Niskanen has probably become less than Robert Hagg.”
Islanders: After plowing through the Florida Panthers, the Islanders spent last week leaving the Washington Capitals not all looking any different than the Florida Panthers. And that’s with Mathew Barzal playing under his usual elite standards and Jordan Eberle not exactly on fire either. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Andy Greene, the islanders’ trade deadline purchases, now look like they fit into this system. The Islanders’ special teams have been expensive in the bubble, especially the penalty kick, but it has not hurt them at all – if they go to battle, this team could be a problem.
Prediction: This is the best chance the Flyers have had at a Stanley Cup in 10 years, but they had more problems than they should have with a Canadiens team that is not very good. Semyon Varlamov should have a slight edge over Hart in the battle of goalies, and Barry Trotz has a big edge over Vigneault in the clash of coaches. The forward groups are pretty even, but the Islanders have a better defensive corps. Each team has players who can take over the series. It is difficult not to go back to the goals and the coaches. Islanders in 6.
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