Philippine President Rodrigo Duarte met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April 2019 in Beijing, China.
Kenzaburo Fukuhara | Kyodo News | Getty Images
SINGAPORE – After more than four years in power, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is still struggling to show that his country has benefited. Ga alliance alliance with China.
In a dramatic shift in Philippine foreign policy, Duarte announced in 2016 the country’s secession from the US – a military ally – and closer ties with China.
Among other things, the president also sidelined his country’s territorial dispute with Beijing in the South China Sea, with China pledging billions of dollars in infrastructure investments.
But most of these promised investments have not been fulfilled and many of these projects have been delayed or sheltered, while anti-China rhetoric is growing louder in Duarte’s own government and among the people of the Philippines.
So on all counts, Duarte has been increasingly accused of belittling himself before Beijing and getting nothing for it.
Greg Polling
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Greg Pauling, a senior ally in Southeast Asia and director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, said China has launched only two pledge infrastructure infrastructure projects – a bridge and an irrigation project – and both have hit them hard. ”Said Greg Pauling, Senior Fellow at Southeast Asia and Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Beijing has also not endorsed the harassment of Filipino troops and civilians in the South China Sea. So on all counts, Duarte is accused of abusing himself before Beijing and getting nothing for it.”
Increasing domestic political pressure
Duarte’s compromising approach to China has not been shared by most Filipinos who view other global and regional powers more favorably.
In a July survey of Polster social weather stations, Filipinos relied more on the US and Australia than on China. Confidence in China was worse than in a survey conducted in December last year.
Such a deterioration in public sentiment against China is due to the coronavirus epidemic – which devastated the Philippine economy – and Beijing’s continued aggression in the South China Sea as the two countries transcend regional claims.
Peter Mumford, Eurasia Group’s head of practice for Southeast and South Asia, told CNBC by email that all of this “increased domestic political pressure on Duarte to get its main business back to China.”
The Philippines has taken a number of foreign policy measures against China in recent months, which analysts say comes significantly from the Duarte government:
The Philippines and China have been competing for years on a rich processed waterway that carries billions of dollars annually from global trade. Former East Asian country – led by former President Benigno Aquino III, took China to court.
In 2016, shortly after Duarte took office, an international tribunal ruled that parts claimed by both countries belonged only to the Philippines.
China ignored the ruling, while critics said Duarte did little to demand compliance from Beijing. Despite growing China-suspicious voices in his administration, Duarte remained largely silent, analysts noted.
Time is running out
Overall, Duterte’s critical remarks from his own cabinet are “not a sign of a tangible change in the administration’s attitude toward China,” said Derek Away, a senior analyst at Control Risk.
He explained to CNBC that the comments “should be seen as deliberate attempts by local stakeholders, such as the military and growing sections of the public, who are skeptical of Duterte’s China policy.”
“Relations between China and the Philippines will remain stable as long as Duarte is president,” he said, adding that Duarte could sometimes turn to “nationalist rhetoric” to help his preferred successor in the 2022 presidential election.
“But actions speak louder than words: the Duarte administration will continue to deepen economic ties with China and refuse to internationalize the South China Sea dispute,” Awe said in an email.
But with less than two years left in his six-year term, Duarte is taking time to achieve the desired economic results from Beijing.
Mumford of the Eurasia Group noted that despite the mostly unfulfilled Chinese promises, Duterte argued that his country was still “better” at avoiding aggression with China given the “asymmetry of power” between them.
“Nevertheless, Duarte is coming under increasing pressure to demonstrate the benefits it has gained from its relationship with China.”
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