Pav coronavirus update: 631 new cases bring the state to 103K in total; 25 more reported deaths. How deadly is COVID-19? How many contact trackers does Pennsylvania have? The | Pa. Coronavirus case map (07/22/20)

Pennsylvania coronavirus cases rose by 631 in the state health department’s Wednesday report, a sharp drop from the 1,000 new cases reported the day before, possibly due in part to missing data from the state’s largest city.

Pennsylvania’s coronavirus case count is now 103,396. With 25 more deaths, the number of COVID-19 deaths has increased to 7,063.

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Despite a month-long increase in cases across the state, the local case rate in the Lehigh Valley remains low and steady. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has provided an update on its contact tracking program, and an analysis by the Wall Street Journal attempts to determine the true death rate from coronavirus.

Here are your Pennsylvania coronavirus updates for July 22, 2020.

Outbreak of coronavirus in Pa.

Data released Wednesday by the Pennsylvania Department of Health did not include a new COVID-19 case count from Philadelphia, one of two areas that has recently brought the state into daily counts.

The other, Allegheny County, Pittsburgh, which for weeks led the rise in Pennsylvania, had 96 new cases in Wednesday’s report, the first time the county has seen fewer than 100 a day since June 29.

(Can’t see the graph? Click here.)

State health officials have recorded a general increase in testing in the past few weeks and have seen an increasing number of cases in younger adults as the Pennsylvania economy reopened.

However, those over 65 are more likely to be hospitalized or die. Nursing home residents account for about 18% of all Pennsylvania cases, but 68% of deaths, according to data from the health department.

The health department estimates that 75% of Pennsylvania coronavirus patients have so far recovered.

How deadly is COVID-19?

A Wall Street Journal analysis published this week attempted to determine COVID-19’s death rate by looking at more than two dozen studies that included both known cases and estimates of those that might not have been diagnosed. According to the report, most put the death rate between 0.5% and 1%, which means that the coronavirus kills five to 10 out of every 1,000 people who contract it, five to 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts the official death rate at 0.65%.

But the calculation is based in part on the people who tested positive, and the true number of cases may be much higher than is known. PennLive.com, citing different data from the CDC, reports that cases in Pennsylvania may be 6.8 times more than has been reported so far.

(Can’t see the graph? Click here.)

Coronavirus in the Lehigh Valley

With 27 new cases and two deaths reported in the last day, the Lehigh Valley now totals 8,269 cases and 622 deaths, according to state figures. That breaks down into:

• 4,600 cases and 334 deaths in Lehigh County, an increase of 15 cases and one death.
• 3,669 cases and 288 deaths in Northampton County, an increase of 12 cases and one death.

(Can’t see the graph? Click here.)

This is how nearby counties are and how they changed on the last day:

• Berks County has 4,889 cases and 362 deaths, an increase of 24 cases and one death.
• Bucks County has 6,513 cases and 573 deaths, an increase of 46 cases.
• Carbon County has 335 cases and 28 deaths, an increase of five cases.
• Monroe County has 1,534 cases and 120 deaths, an increase of four cases and one death.
• Montgomery County has 9,282 cases and 839 deaths, an increase of 60 cases and two deaths.
• Schuylkill County has 828 cases and 49 deaths, an increase of two cases and one death.

(Can’t you see the table? Click here.)

Tracking contacts in Pennsylvania

Contact tracing, the process of monitoring people who may have contracted COVID-19 from a positive patient, is an essential part of pandemic control.

In an update Wednesday, the Pennsylvania Department of Health said it has 661 contact trackers. That’s more than the 625 the state estimates it needs, but the health department says the need could grow to hundreds or even thousands if the virus resurfaces in the fall.

The tracers are distributed by region, most of which have a few dozen working with community organizations and health systems.

The northeast region, which includes the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and Scranton, has at least 69 contact trackers, according to the state. The Southeast region, which includes Philadelphia and its suburbs through Reading, has 380.

The health department is hiring field managers for contact tracking. The positions are listed on health.pa.gov.

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Steve Novak can be contacted at [email protected].