Just as the pandemic drove everyone in forever, many NFL teams were arguing about how to get a hose in their draft preparation.
What about the doctors? How about the interviews? What about the way we always have?
I pointed out at the time that one of Bill Belichick’s favorite Chinese old strategists / philosophers / military philosophers, Sun Tzu, had a good guess that the Patriots would probably embrace in the draft. “In the midst of chaos, there is an opportunity.”
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Almost four months later, chaos still reigns in the NFL. And the biggest brain in business is still poised to take advantage of the chaos.
It’s not ideal for any team to spend a full low season without OTA, in-person classroom work, mini-camps, or even a moment to shake hands.
The Patriots are a team that goes from the best quarterback in NFL history to players named Brian or Jarrett who are not … the best quarterbacks in NFL history. They just launched a life preserver to an almost completely unknown entity at Cam Newton, which is Brady’s opposite pole quarterback in terms of style.
Now they have no preseason to see how any of them performs. Or joint practices. And just a handful of padded workouts. Compared to other seasons, they will know next to nothing about their team when they hit the field for their first game.
All that uncertainty. For Belichick, it is a beautiful thing.
Why their first opponent, the Miami Dolphins? They will know less than zero.
Will the Patriots open the season with Newton or Stidham under center? Will they have enough offense installed to take full advantage of Newton’s variety of talents? Will they build on the late ’18 approach that emphasized the execution power game? Can their rookie tight ends know something in the crowded session they will suffer?
They have an offensive line that returns intact (albeit without a legendary offensive line coach). They have a group of veteran runners with varied talents and two very veteran receivers, Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu, who are among the smartest amphibians in the league (I don’t have 2019 against Sanu). And they have the best offensive coordinator in the league who has been doing more with less for a long time.
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In defense, the place where it matters most, in high school, they are overloaded with talent and experience. They won’t have bust after bust there.
Meanwhile, Belichick’s ability as a teacher is legendary. And he understands that the whole class can only go as fast as his slowest student. So learn the basics and execute it perfectly.
Can you honestly imagine how daunting this season seems to someone like Joe Judge who is in his first year with the Giants? Or Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland or Matt Rhule in Carolina? There’s really no way those teams are expected to know anything about themselves until November. And by then it is too late.
The Patriots may not know exactly which style they will ultimately play. But they know who they are. They know how they do things.
Do you remember the beginning of the 2016 season when Tom Brady was suspended? There was an expectation that the Patriots could pamper Jimmy Garoppolo, keep him simple, and not put him in a position to fail. They opened wide. He played his butt for six quarters. Then his shoulder broke.
The following week, the Texans had to deal with Jacoby Brissett as quarterback. It wasn’t that hot. While the offense was basically the same, there were enough built-in wrinkles to catch Houston with the flat defense. The Texans were also overwhelmed by special teams that night which, as always, could be another hidden advantage for the team in 2020.
The subterfuge, the element of surprise, taking advantage of the uncertainty and staying in balance when the other team is becoming frantic, everything is the elemental Belichick.
Think of the 2020 season as a completely black runner. It bends. It falls. It is dangerous. Each team has to walk it.
Right now, there probably isn’t an owner in the league who doesn’t see his own head coach and wonder how much better they would be with Belichick at the front of the line.
