The total number of COVID-19 tests conducted in Orange County was mistakenly inflated for more than a month beginning in late April in data released to the public, a mistake that may have painted a brighter picture of the pandemic than reality in the region.
Over roughly five weeks, county staff incorrectly added 30,000 serology tests to their “cumulative tests to date” figure, making it appear that more tests were being done to detect the virus than was the case.
The count of cumulative tests reported by the county is supposed to be a count of how many diagnostic tests, which detect whether someone was infected with the virus at the time of the test, were conducted across the county, Dr. Clayton Chau, director Orange County Health Agency and the county’s interim health officer said during a press conference Thursday.
Serology tests, which officials say should not be included in the cumulative test figure, determine whether the body has mounted an immune response to the virus in the past few weeks or months. Experts say those tests are unreliable in determining if someone is ill at the time of the test.
“I would like to sincerely apologize for any confusion this issue has caused the community. Going forward, “Chau said, he and his team” will be more transparent about the data that informs our residents’ personal health policies and decisions. ”
The error first occurred on April 28 when health services personnel downloaded lab results from the California Reportable Diseases Information Exchange database and mistakenly captured serology tests as part of the report. “all COVID tests”. That information was posted on the county’s website, according to the Health Care Agency.
The error continued undetected until June 3, when county leaders became aware of the problem and immediately stopped including serology tests in the test figure. But officials took until June 26 to remove the incorrect data from the county’s website, Chau said.
He said the county was preparing to correct the information when it released a new version of its website, but system glitches and officials’ attention to the reopening of the county delayed the site’s launch, making the data inaccurate. they were available to the public for several weeks.
Members of the county Board of Supervisors did not learn of the inaccuracy until the information was released by the Orange County Register this week, board chairwoman Michelle Steel said.
“I immediately asked Dr. Chau to provide an explanation of what happened and how it affects our numbers,” Steel said. “I have also asked Dr. Chau to start reporting the antibody tests separately on our website so that all data is clear and traceable to us and to [the] public.”
Chau said the county never counted positive serology tests as positive COVID-19 cases, which would have incorrectly inflated the number of cases in the county.
He also contends that the county never used the wrong test number to determine its positivity rate, or the rate at which the coronavirus test results came back positive. The positivity rate is one way that health officials can measure whether the number of cases is increasing due to more testing or because there is more spread of disease within the community.
The combination of the number of diagnostic and serological tests could make the ratio of positive tests appear lower, and the rate of positivity less severe, for someone looking at the data if officials don’t specify the amount of each test, Dr said. Shruti Gohil, associate medical director of epidemiology and infection prevention at UC Irvine.
“You can’t group both tests together when it comes to determining how many new cases we have,” he said. “If you are trying to understand how many people have had a coronavirus at any time in the county, then you could group the two together.”
Authorities contend that the county’s positivity rate, which is one of the metrics the state used to determine whether Orange County could reopen additional sectors of its economy in mid-May, was never affected by the inaccurate figure.
The county’s positivity rate was 7.95% over a seven-day period in mid-May, according to figures released by the state. As of Thursday, the county had a case rate of 152.5 per 100,000 residents and a positive test rate of 12%, according to health officials.
The state has established a desired standard average of 25 positive cases per 100,000 over a 14-day period and an average seven-day positive test rate of 8%.
“I can assure you in terms of the positivity rate that was always discharged from the state and we don’t auto-calculate it, so the number will remain the same,” Chau said. “It would not have affected decision making.”
The news of the inaccurate data came to light when county officials grappled with a worrying increase in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, prompting the state this week to curtail reopening efforts in the region. The county has the third-highest number of coronavirus cases among the state’s 58 counties and the fourth-highest number of deaths, according to data from the Los Angeles Times.
On Thursday, county health officials reported 652 additional cases of coronavirus and nine more deaths. The numbers bring the county’s total case count to 15,065 and the death toll to 354. Officials also reported that 556 people were being hospitalized for the virus with 193 in intensive care.
On Wednesday, county officials announced the closure of bars, pubs, breweries, and breweries that do not offer dinner meals. Less than two hours after the county issued its new order, Governor Gavin Newsom announced that Orange County, along with 18 other counties, bars must be closed immediately and restaurant operations must cease, wineries and tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and game rooms.
The new rules will remain in effect for at least three weeks, Newsom said.
“Due to this sudden order, these businesses will lose a lot and this will likely have bigger negative consequences on the California economy than we initially predicted,” Steel, the supervisor, said Thursday, urging residents to practice good hygiene. hands and use face covers. in public.
“We don’t have to sacrifice public health for the economy or vice versa when we can focus on ensuring that both are protected.”
