The number of deaths carefully followed by COVID-19 may not fully capture the loss of life during the pandemic. Analysis of state and federal statistics for all-cause deaths shows hundreds of additional deaths above normal levels this spring in the Pacific Northwest. Some or many of them may overlook COVID-19 deaths.
In the medical field, deaths higher than what would normally be expected are called “excess deaths”. On a percentage basis, total deaths between March and early June were approximately 3% higher than usual in Oregon and 6% higher in Washington state, which was actually considerably better than the nation as a whole , where the New York Times calculated 20% more. than the average deaths during the period.
“To really see the total number of deaths, and if it was in excess compared to what has happened in recent years, gives some indication of the total burden that the COVID pandemic is producing in the community,” said Anirban, a professor at the University of Washington. Basu
Basu was one of several experts we consulted to assess the true impact of the pandemic. Study COVID-19 mortality rates while chairing the UW Institute for Economics, Policy and Comparative Health Outcomes.
The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Oregon and Washington state health departments provided us with data on deaths from all causes, not just COVID-19.
Those numbers showed that between late March and early May, there was an increase in people who died from other causes along with the peak in COVID deaths. The notable collateral damage spanned about seven weeks in Washington and about six weeks in Oregon.
Idaho’s total number of deaths in 2020 in this period was nearly normal, which makes sense given that the pandemic increased more recently in the State of Gems.
Based on the models and deaths observed, on July 8, the CDC estimated that 900 more deaths than usual occurred in Washington state since February and as many as 478 more in Oregon. In Washington’s case, they are actually fewer deaths than the cumulative total of COVID-19 deaths (approximately 1,350 as of last week), which may indicate incomplete data. Another possibility is that COVID has partially replaced other causes of mortality that would have otherwise brought imminent death to some people.
All academic and government teams evaluating excess deaths in the pandemic warned that they are working with preliminary data. Death certificates take between one and eight weeks, or more, to process and catalog. Final, verified numbers on deaths in the first half of this year won’t be available until 2021.
Dr. Kathy Lofy, Washington State Health Officer, said that many of the excessive deaths this spring could actually be unrecognized COVID cases.
“A lot of the thinking is that they may be related to COVID in some way,” Lofy said during a briefing. “If they have an underlying heart or lung condition, they may die from that heart or lung condition, and sometimes it may not even be recognized that they actually had COVID-19.”
“We are confident that there are people who die from COVID who never undergo testing and therefore are not picked up in our situation,” added Washington Governor Jay Inslee during a press conference in Olympia on Tuesday. “There is increasing recognition of that phenomenon across the country.”
The CDC’s excess death count shows the largest deviation from normal since February among people with Alzheimer’s disease and dementia. The categories of stroke and diabetes are also highlighted.
Pandemic disruptions could cause a faster decrease in patients who were frail to begin with. Carrie McBride, director of marketing and communications for the Alzheimer’s Association’s Washington state chapter, said this has been “a really difficult time” for the people her nonprofit serves.
“We are hearing that social isolation, and the added stress of everything that has been happening and the disruption of people’s routines, lack of resources and respite, are really affecting these families,” McBride said in an interview. .
This rings true for Susan Weber of Seattle. Her mother, Helen Molina, was in an advanced-stage Alzheimer’s assisted living facility when the pandemic began, then she caught the coronavirus and died from it.
“One thing I learned through the Alzheimer’s group was how much routine and continuity was important not only for their mental health, but also to slow the decline,” Weber said in an interview.
Weber said he was unable to see his mother in person during Molina’s last three weeks of life due to COVID-19 precautions.
“Suddenly we weren’t there,” Weber said of the forbidden family visits. “They are literally in their room all day alone, except to get meals. It was one of those frustrating things. “
Weber said her 85-year-old mother’s death certificate correctly listed COVID-19 as the cause of death with Alzheimer’s as an underlying condition.
The Alzheimer’s Association wants to see the shortage of addressed protective equipment and more coronavirus testing done in long-term care facilities and nursing homes. The Washington Department of Health recently completed an effort to screen all residents and staff of every nursing home in the state.
“It is difficult for someone who cares about this cause to hear so passionately that professional athletes, for example, are being evaluated every other day when the population that is likely to be most vulnerable in all of this is only being evaluated once, if they give their consent McBride said in an interview.
In the first weeks of the pandemic, emergency rooms saw a decrease in visits as some people avoided going to hospitals to limit their possible exposure to the new virus. This behavior raised concern in the medical profession about the timely treatment of strokes and heart disease.
“The evidence suggests that heart attack and stroke patients delayed seeking care due to the COVID-19 emergency, which would explain excess mortality,” the authors wrote of a recent article in the online journal medRxiv. “The reduced search for care could contribute substantially to excess mortality.”
However, Dr. Raquel Bono, a Washington state coronavirus doctor, Basu, and Dr. Raquel Bono, said last week that there was no evidence in mortality data of any significant increase in deaths attributable to people who delayed necessary hospital care.
Despite high mental stress and widespread job loss, there is also no discernible increase in suicides during the pandemic, judging by data provided by the Washington State Department of Health to date.
The increase in excess deaths appears to have decreased in May in the Pacific Northwest. Lately, even with ongoing COVID deaths in the mix, the number of weekly deaths from all causes seems to be within the normal range. That trend enhanced the UW professor Basu’s concern.
“That indicates that more attention is being given to these residents in long-term care facilities or because we are now capturing COVID deaths more accurately,” Basu said.
The Washington Department of Health said Tuesday it accelerated the normally slow process of registering death certificates “to support a rapid and informed response” to the pandemic. Epidemiologists continue to search for sectors with excess deaths that could reveal coronavirus foci that need attention.
“The million dollar question is what happened to everything else,” state health department epidemiologist Victoria Lazariu said in an interview Tuesday. “There are many moving parts. Hopefully, over time we can make sense of this. “
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