Odds are against the 49ers having a chance to finish the job in 2020


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By covering the NFL, we can paint an optimistic picture for the 32 teams, constantly seeing the glass half full or more so we can get as many fans from as many teams as possible excited before the season starts. Or we can tell the truth.

Some fan bases don’t want to hear the truth. As evidenced by the reaction to a couple of recent videos analyzing comments from 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, many 49ers fans are unwilling to hear the truth. And it is difficult to blame them.

The discussion was sparked by Shanahan saying this at the team’s annual “state of the franchise” event, while addressing the point where the team had a 10-point lead with seven minutes to play in Super Bowl LIV: “[T]The state of the franchise right now is that we have to go back to that time. We have to go back to the fourth quarter and have an advantage and finish the job. ”

Finishing the job should be the easy part. The ridiculously difficult part is getting back to the point where there is a chance to finish the job.

Yes, the 49ers secured first place on the NFC playoff field, which made it much easier to eliminate the Vikings and Packers and advance to the Super Bowl. Getting seed number 1 was a different story.

Even before it all boiled down to the closing seconds of the regular season, a narrow victory over Seattle that depended on a stop at the goal line that would have otherwise relegated the 49ers to seed number 5, the 49ers had to tugging a rabbit out of the hat twice in the same season to beat the Rams, the 49ers barely knocked down the Saints in New Orleans, and they had a more difficult time than expected, twice, with the Cardinals. From the third week, the 49ers’ victory over a Steelers team adjusting to life without Ben Roethlisberger could easily have been a loss. If any of those games were the other way around, the 49ers would have had to win three games on the road (with a very low chance of hosting the NFC Championship) to reach the Super Bowl.

Now, the 49ers have returned to what Dennis Green called “the valley of zero and zero.” It all starts again, one week at a time, one game at a time. Having the urge to move quickly to finish the job in February will do nothing to help the team get there.

Including the pandemic variables, this season carries even more uncertainty for all teams. Which will make it even more difficult for the teams perceived as the best to deliver on that promise, especially when those teams will carry a much bigger goal, taking the most effort out of every opponent they face.

That’s one reason why only two teams won the Super Bowl the year after losing it. The 49ers will try to become the third in the 54 times a team has lost the Super Bowl and tried to get the final atonement the next day.

So the last thing the 49ers should think about is going back to the bottom half of the fourth quarter of the last game of the season. They should focus only on the first week until the first week arrives. And then in the second week. And so.

That’s what Bill Belichick would do. It is what he does. What happened last year doesn’t mean anything. There is no remnant. There are no pending issues. Every year the business is the same, as far as Belichick is concerned.

And that’s why Shanahan’s comments are surprising. By all indications (and with apologies to all the other young coaches), Shanahan has a very good shot at being the next Belichick. And if the Patriots had lost a 10-point lead by the end of Super Bowl LIV, Belichick wouldn’t be talking, thinking, or letting anyone in the organization speak or plan to return to that point.