This is known as “viral load”.
The most commonly used test to determine if someone has Covid-19, known as a PCR test, is positive or negative. But the test does not identify the viral load – the higher the amount of virus, the more likely it is that the patient is infected.
“In three sets of cycle thresholds prepared by authorities in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, 100 percent of those who tested positive rarely tested a virus,” The New York Times reported Sunday after reviewing the data.
As of Thursday, 45,604 new coronavirus cases had been reported in the United States, according to a database maintained by the Times. If contagious rates in Massachusetts and New York were to be applied nationwide, perhaps only .00 of those people would need to be isolated and submitted for contact tracing.
Health experts told the paper that the current PCR test is very sensitive and should be improved so that it can determine the viral load – which would then reject people with negligible amounts of the virus.
Apurva Mandavili, a Times reporter who wrote on the piece, said on Twitter: Data from some state laboratories indicate that up to 90% (!!) of people who get a positive result are not infected and do not need to be isolated. “
New: All these months in the epidemic, we are being tested the wrong way. Data from some state laboratories indicate that up to 90% (!!) of people who get a positive result are not infected and do not need to be isolated.
Strap in, this is important. 1 / XHTTS: //t.co/rR4aBDK4Xl
– Apurva Mandavili (@ Purva_Nisik) August Gust 29, 2020
“It simply came to our notice then that PCR, the older reliable workaholics, was too slow and too sensitive to what we wanted,” he said. And it all sticks to a metric called the ‘cycle threshold.’ Wrote In another post
Current PCR tests use a genetic material analysis of the virus or a 37K0 cycle, but health experts say it is too low because it detects even small amounts of the virus that do not pose a risk of infection.
“Tests with high thresholds can detect not only live viruses, but also genetic fragments. There is no particular risk of surviving the infection – it’s like finding hair in a room after a person has gone,” said Dr. Michael Meena, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH. Chan School Public Health, told the paper.
“If you adjust it to a more reasonable CT threshold of reasonable 0, nowhere does the state lab result in 40% – 0%. It’s no longer positive.” The rest have gone beyond the infectious point.
“Think about it for a minute. Think about how thousands of people are asked to separate, stay away from work, and submit contact tracing. But, also think about the unnecessary hurdles, and all the people who aren’t being tested and when they don’t need to be, they’re going to be alone, ”she said. Wrote On Twitter. “Imagine a neighborhood on fire. Here, firefighters have defined dead organs as ‘fire’ and are so busy putting it out that they are losing entire houses that are burning and will set others on fire. “
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