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It is common for government parties to decline. In Norway, the average decline in government parties over the past 30 years is 4.4 percentage points. The 2017 elections were no exception. The ruling Conservative and Liberal parties lost 3 percentage points.
A left wind blew across the country three years ago.
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According to election researchers Johannes Bergh and Bernt Aardal, the voters who voted in the 2017 elections were more on the left than in the elections four years earlier. The red-green side strengthened. All the red-green parties advanced except for the Labor Party. The Center Party won the elections. The party performed better than in any of the five previous elections.
Despite a left-wing wind blowing across the country, the Solberg government remained seated against all odds. This is due to a lot of luck. Former Conservative voters voted for the Liberals to bring the party above the 4 percent threshold. Labor broke down in the election campaign and won its second worst election in modern times.
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The slowdown in Aps was towards “normal”.
After four years in opposition, the party was expected to step forward and regain power from the government. Opinion polls before the summer of 2017 also indicated that it would happen. Like lightning from a clear sky, the setback came in August. Work fell like a stone in the ballot box. The party lost voters in buckets and buckets, especially to Sp.
One year before the next elections, the situation is very similar to that of three years ago. Voters go left. The red-green opposition has gained support according to polls of just over 54 percent. It would have given them almost 100 seats in the elections. The Solberg government had resigned.
A red-green coalition government had taken over.
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The left wind has given SP, SV, MDG and red wind in the sails. Polls show that everyone has more support than they received in the Storting elections. The flagship on the red-green side is fighting the headwinds as it did in the election campaign three years ago. In the last election, the Labor Party received 27.4 percent. In the average of the September polls, the party has 23.2 percent. With Labor down 20 percent, the race has been for the red greens.
Labor must have more than 25 percent support for victory to feel secure.
On the bourgeois side, things are worse than three years ago. Conservatives cling to the 25 percent election result. FRP is far behind at 12 percent. KrF and the Liberal Party, which slipped above the threshold in the last elections, are below the threshold. Solberg’s tripartite government has no chance of survival if KrF and the Liberal Party do not exceed the 4 percent threshold in the elections.
The electoral campaign will be decisive. The parties that put their problems on the electoral campaign agenda win.
Johannes Bergh and Bernt Aardal write in their analysis of the 2017 elections that, although voters took a political and ideological step to the left from 2013 to 2017, the parties on the red-green side did not make the most of it. The election campaign was won by the ruling Conservative and Liberal parties. These were the central themes of these parties, such as immigration and taxes, that many had in mind when they went to the polls.
Work and the climate will probably be the main themes of the next electoral campaign.
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The corona pandemic has caused unemployment that we had not experienced in the postwar period. The Solberg government’s policy is to use oil money for emergency relief and tax relief. The red-green side should be able to match this in a simple way. Historically, the left has had more trust among voters when it comes to employment policy than the right.
The same applies to the climate problem. Here, MDG and SV will lead on the red-green side. Government babble on climate will drown in the MDGs and SV’s clear speech.
All parliamentary elections are also government elections. Over the years, Erna Solberg’s governments have grown into overripe fruit that the red-green side should be able to pick easily. Labor is struggling with the polls, but the starting point for a red-green election winner in one year remains good. It is against the normal that Erna Solberg wins for the third time.
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