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By Helge Rønning Birkelund / FriFagbevegelse
In the December poll that Opinion has conducted for FriFagbevegelse, Dagsavisen and ANB, the Center Party reaches new heights with 22.2 percent. Only twice before in modern times has the party been in the 1920s in opinion polls.
Arne Strand comments on the poll: “For the first time in the postwar period, three roughly equal parties are fighting for government power.”
Broken back
When Trygve Slagsvold Vedum took over as leader of the Center Party in 2014, the party with a broken back was just above the four percent barrier limit. The average was 4.5 percent in the measurements. Vedum’s first poll in Opinion was 4.7 percent.
Six and a half years later, the party is equal to the Conservatives and the Labor Party. The party has never been better in Opinion. And the leader has become so well known that he was even invited to “Maskorama” as a scarecrow in prime time on NRK.
Progress in the past month is almost as great as total support when Trygve Slagsvold Vedum took over as party leader.
Support has more than doubled since the 2017 elections (10.3 percent), and the party would have the largest parliamentary group of all had this been the result of the elections.
The electoral researcher of the Department of Social Research, Johannes Bergh, believes that the development of the Center Party in these six years is unparalleled in Norwegian politics.
“It is a completely exceptional situation that the Center Party has caught up with the two traditionally large parties in Norwegian politics. They have grown more than I ever thought they could,” Johannes Bergh tells FriFagbevegelse.
He also points out that it is special that the Center Party draws voters from both sides, both from the bourgeois side and from the left in Norwegian politics.
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Develop city and country
What has been the recipe, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum should be able to describe:
– It has literally been a trip all over Norway. I have met an incredible number of people. No hurries. Travel, listen, see, learn and drink coffee in a country we love so much, with little differences so far both economically and geographically. And it has been building local teams after local teams. Build the organization, says Trygve Slagsvold Vedum to FriFagbevegelse.
– With a policy in which we invest in both the development of Bergen and the development of Berlevåg. And where you should have a decent life regardless of profession and background, he adds.
At the same time, he believes that the party’s voters, like him, believe that development is going in a totally wrong direction.
– Those who are going to keep Norway running deserve adequate wages and working conditions. Look at the railroad, for example: the number of directors has multiplied, while those who work with cleaners have been privatized. This means they lose their salary, lose their pension rights, lose their paid meal breaks, and have to start commuting. It is called modernization but it is something completely different, believes the leader of the SP.
– It’s time for a change. We must equalize, not create differences, believe.
Vedum is also the winner in terms of loyalty among its own voters. Nine out of 10 who voted for the party in the last parliamentary elections say they will do the same in the fall. The party draws voters from all parties, with one exception: Red.
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Right dabber
The corona effect is fading for Prime Minister Erna Solberg. The Conservatives are losing support for the second month in a row and are at the lowest level in the crown period of 22.9 percent. The other deputy leader of the Conservative Party, Tina Bru, is however very happy about another poll showing that the Conservative Party is the largest party in the country.
– It is good to see that many appreciate the policy that we implement and the work that Erna does as Prime Minister. The government is working very hard to get Norway out of the crisis. The most important thing now is to ensure that people go back to work and facilitate the creation of new jobs in various industries across the country, Tina Bru tells FriFagbevegelse.
– It occurs at the same time that we keep the infection low and start the vaccination. This crisis is not over. We are closely monitoring the situation and are ready to deliver what is needed to secure Norway, also in the 2021 election year, he continues.
Of the four largest parties, the FRP has had the least impact in the crown period. FRP is stable at 10.9 percent.
The Labor Party has made little progress, and is 21.8 percent close to the Center Party and the Conservatives. However, party secretary Kjersti Stenseng can record that there is a solid red-green majority and that voters want Labor to be in government after this fall’s elections.
– Now we see the consequences of the crisis for ordinary people. 200,000 enter Christmas totally or partially unemployed. This development requires sound policies to reverse. The Labor Party is ready to take on that job and will fight until election day to become Norway’s largest party, Kjersti Stenseng tells FriFagbevegelse.
Had this poll been the result of an election, the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party would have received a total of 81 seats. With SV’s 13 seats on the team, there is a red-green majority with 94 seats.
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Also near the bottom
It’s close at the top, but also close at the bottom. The Liberal Party has not experienced any Guri Melby effect and is back at 2.4 percent. This is the lowest list since December exactly one year ago.
KrF also loses voters and gets 3.4, while Rødt is just below the 3.8 percent threshold.
Only the small parties’ MDGs are above the magic barrier, at 4.5 percent. But the MDGs are also struggling. Johannes Bergh believes that the MDGs now experience the disadvantage of being associated with only one case.
– It is difficult to be an environmental party when the crisis of the crown dominates Norwegian politics as it does now. Then comes the environmental battle in the back game. If the MDGs are to rise and stay above the threshold, the climate and environment must once again be a major issue in Norwegian politics, believes Johannes Bergh.
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