Violence, weapons and elections. The United States has moved a little closer to the precipice.

NEWS ANALYSIS: Armed political opponents bark together on the streets of America. Several have died. Now it is called a warning before the elections.

Civil war. Several times I have been struck by how quickly the word can appear in interviews with Americans.

It is not just about conversations with people fighting for the right to bear arms or with those who belong to the Donald Trump base. Warnings about the danger of a new civil war have also emerged at Democratic election rallies in Iowa and among left-wing activists in Virginia.

Thirty-four percent of voters believe it is “very” or “quite” likely that the United States will experience a civil war in the next five years, according to a poll by Rasmussen in June.

To some extent, this is probably an expression of the fact that political polarization is perceived by many as so extreme that something “must give in” somewhere. The United States is in the midst of many disturbing conflicts, but a full-scale civil war? Fortunately, there is still a long way to go.

The left takes up arms

This does not mean that everything is as it should be nine weeks before the presidential elections. Armed political opponents bark on the streets of America. It is nothing new for Americans to carry guns in public, but what is happening now is serious.

Loosely organized civilian militias are emerging. They cheer each other on on social media and attend demonstrations. Many are heavily armed and some have full military equipment.

There are also more and more examples of the left taking up arms. Black lives matter. Activists I met in Virginia in July explained it about the need to protect yourself. They don’t trust the police.

– The left was much more skeptical about guns five or ten years ago. Now it has become more normalized. We must not intimidate or threaten anyone. But I see it absolutely necessary, said Taylor (27), who himself owns two weapons and only wanted to give his first name to Aftenposten.

Several have been shot during demonstrations in recent months. Last week, Kyle Rittenhouse, 17, was charged with killing two protesters in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Rittenhouse, who has voiced his support for Trump and the police on social media, claims that he was at the scene to protect locals and that he acted in self-defense.

Several have been killed

In all, civil protection groups and far-right actors have appeared in nearly 500 black lives issues rallies this year, according to a database compiled by Alexander Reid Ross at the Center for the Analysis of the Radical Right.

He has recorded 38 examples of cars being driven through crowds and nine examples of protesters being shot. Three died from their injuries.

There are also several incidents with an unclear course. A defense sergeant shot and killed a man during a Black Lives protest in Austin in June. He claims that a rifle was pointed at him and that he acted in self-defense.

This summer, several people died within a so-called autonomous zone established by far-left activists in Seattle.

And this weekend, Aaron J. Danielson, who belonged to Patriot Prayer, a far-right group, was shot and killed in Portland.

The police have not yet charged anyone. Friends of Danielson have accused Antifa activists of being behind this, and there have been calls on social media to avenge the murder.

Fear of violence in elections

Democrats believe Trump is feeding the opposition rather than trying to stifle it. Ahead of Tuesday’s visit to Kenosha, the city mayor and the state governor announced that they would prefer that the president stay home.

Experts fear that the fronts will be even tougher before the elections. On both sides, many voters feel that America’s future is at stake.

– Trump has said over and over again that he does not trust the outcome of this election and that he will not necessarily accept the outcome. What will it be like then on the streets? Joe Lowndes, a professor at the University of Oregon, tells the Financial Times.

He emphasizes that he does not make a prediction that there will be violence the day after the elections.

– But the conditions are right for it in a way we haven’t seen before, he says.

Carolyn Gallaher, a professor at American University’s School of International Service, is an expert on militia groups. She believes that the United States has hidden in a corner.

– If we take a controversial option and these groups take to the streets, it will be very difficult to take control. Many cities are not used to dealing with this, he tells Buzzfeed.

Little can the police do

Some policemen have been accused of being in league with militia groups. But in any case, there is not much law enforcement can do without political action, notes the serious Washington Post journalist Josh Meyer.

In most states, armed protesters do nothing illegal when they march with guns. The violation only occurs when discounted. So it is often too late.

“Given all the weapons and strong emotions that are at stake, it is not difficult to imagine events with many deaths,” Meyer writes.

It can even happen by mistake.

“The authorities are particularly concerned about an episode in which one person in a group fires a shot, causing others, including the police, to respond instinctively,” he writes.

America has cracked up several times in the last hundred years. Ultimately, the vast majority have settled on the fact that it is better to resolve conflicts at the polls than with guns on the streets.

Expect the same to happen on Tuesday, November 3.

Follow the US correspondent on Instagram (@oysteinlangberg) and Facebook for updates on the 2020 presidential election.