United States Presidential Election – Dataguru:

Democrat Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the polls ahead of the November 3 presidential election, just as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

As is well known, the polls did not beat that year, and Professor Bela Stantic believes they will not beat this year either.

In an analysis by the computer guru and statistics expert based on social media and engagement, he tells Sky News Australia that Trump will reach 270 voters who grant four new years in power.

– It’s obvious that Biden will get the most votes nationally, but Trump is doing very well in the auspicious states. Florida is wide open, but I keep it a narrow favorite. The same goes for Minnesota and Pennsylvania. “Texas will win easily,” Stantic told Sky News Australia last month.

BIG DATA: Bela Stantic analyzes large amounts of data and makes sense of it. Here is an image from a research project to create models for cancer treatment. Photo: Griffith University
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– Trump strengthened

This week, he gave an update after the latest presidential debate and Trump’s crown disease. Hence, he dived deep into the state of Florida.

– The picture has not changed since last month, but Trump has strengthened in Florida. There’s reason to believe this is a trend that applies to other states as well, Stantic says in a recent interview, saying he’s more confident about Trump’s victory in Florida than he was last month.

– I also don’t see any negative corona effects for Trump.

Stantic has drawn attention in several elections in recent years. He says he has no idea of ​​politics, but heads a department at Australia’s prestigious Griffith University that has developed algorithms to analyze social media and people’s moods.

In the 2016 elections, Stantic reached 49 out of 50 states and also announced that the British would vote for Brexit. Both times he said the exact opposite of the measurements, and he was right.

Millions of Twitter messages

Last year, he also predicted the shocking election in Australia when Scott Morrison won. He waited to reveal the analysis until the afternoon of Election Day because he did not want to influence the election.

– The precision with which elections can be predicted by analyzing social media is terrifying, Stantic declared after hitting all constituencies.

In an article on the university’s website, Stantic explains that it analyzes millions of messages, interactions and dissemination of Twitter. They are then fed into the algorithm and grounded through supercomputers.

Stantic believes that he, to a much better degree than the pollsters, manages to capture what the voters really think.

– Twitter is public, dynamic and has a lot of content, so it works well as a basis for analyzing the results, says Stantic, who also says that the algorithms can be used on other social networks.

If Stantic gets it right again, it will be another earthquake for pollsters, who received stiff opposition after they failed to see Trump’s 2016 victory or Brexit.

Biden’s huge management

Biden’s lead in the polls is huge. Polling guru Nate Silver gives Biden a 9.2 percentage point lead today.

Biden also leads comfortably in almost every state with a tip and if opinion polls are released, it will be a landslide for Biden.

The changing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona will likely be decisive for the results of this year’s election: here Biden is ahead with 49.3 percent on average against 45.5 percent. Trump.

Trump is also very unpopular according to opinion polls. 53.6 percent think he does a bad job as president, while 42.6 percent think he does it well, according to a weighted average of the latest polls.

Elections are on November 3, but polling stations are now open in the United States. Donald Trump voted yesterday in Florida, moving to the state from his hometown of New York last year.