– Trying to look more powerful than they are – VG

The attempt of the terrorist group IS to take responsibility for the attacks comes in a statement that they have published themselves. They have provided no evidence that they are behind the attacks in Vienna.

– They try to appear bigger and more powerful than they are. It works, for example, by making the media call me. This is how they get a lot of attention, terrorism expert Thomas Hegghammer of the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI) tells VG.

– can mean anything

He believes that it is not very clear what role the organization actually played in the attack.

– Taking the blame can mean anything and tells us very little, except that they want to be associated with the attack. At the same time, it sends a signal that would-be attackers can be honored and part of a community, even if they are truly all alone, Hegghammer says.

– Until we see very concrete connections, we cannot affirm that IS has returned as an organization.

Swedish terrorism researcher Magnus Ranstorp at the Swedish National Defense College, on the other hand, says that ISIS has never completely disappeared.

– They are still a factor to take into account. The perpetrator in Vienna was heading to Syria to join the organization, he tells VG.

According to Ranstorp, the attacks seen in Europe are determined by the size of the extreme media, the politicians on the offensive against Islamism and the fact that the cartoon dispute is intensifying.

– Cartoons pour gasoline on fire, the researcher believes.

– Looks military

Although there is still relatively little information available on the attacks and perpetrators after the terrorist attack in Austria, it seems planned as it degenerated on Monday night.

This is the opinion of senior researcher Petter Nesser, also at FFI.

– In style, it looks almost military. My first thought was that there might be a foreign warrior involved. He looked like someone who was almost used to doing this, but then it turned out that he had obviously been prevented from traveling to Syria, says Nesser.

A total of 16 people have been arrested so far after the terror attack, Interior Minister Karl Nehammer said at a news conference Tuesday afternoon.

Reuters reports Tuesday night that two more people were arrested in Zurich, Switzerland, in connection with the attacks in the neighboring country.

In addition, one perpetrator was shot dead by police during the terror on Monday.

He was a 20-year-old Austrian citizen with roots in North Macedonia and had previously been convicted of trying to go to Syria to join the Islamic State.

It has been confirmed that 22 people have been injured and four have died so far. Police believe several perpetrators are behind the attack, where at least one of the perpetrators is said to have fired at various bars in the area.

Among the dead are an older man and woman, a younger passerby, and a waitress.

Major jihadist networks

Like most European democracies, Austria is also a terrorist target. The country is also a legitimate target because they participate in a coalition against ISIS, explains Nesser. But networks are also important in explaining why a country is being hit by jihadist attacks.

“Although there have been few terrorist attacks in Austria, the jihadist network in the country is not insignificant,” says Nesser.

– There have been a good number of attack plans, that is, avoided attacks. There have also been some connections to Austria from other terrorist networks in other parts of Europe, he explains.

Furthermore, between 200 and 300 foreign fighters have traveled from Austria to Syria. By comparison, there are between 90 and 100 people in Norway, and around 1,400 in France.

– The alleged perpetrator, who is now dead, was previously convicted of attempting to travel to Syria. Shouldn’t he have been caught and detained?

– You have received a tremendous new recruitment of people who have not been part of the network over time due to the mobilization in Syria. At the same time, more and more mobilization is taking place on social media and a change is being achieved in attackers’ tactics. They are increasing, with attacks with simple weapons, often carried out by individuals.

– The smallest actions with few people and simple weapons are difficult to detect when we live in open democratic societies, simply, unless the person is part of an already known network.

Many attacks are avoided

But to understand the big picture, you also have to consider attacks that stop, explains Nesser.

– Of these, there are quite a few major group attacks with explosives, like the one we saw in Mumbai in 2008.

This is one of the avoided attacks in Austria, Nesser notes:

• 2014: a 14-year-old boy of Turkish origin who was recruited to carry out an attack through a network on social networks is arrested.
• 2016: An attack on the Ramstein base (US air base) in Germany in Austria is planned and stopped.
• 2018: Attempts to derail a high-speed train in Germany. A 42-year-old man and known IS sympathizer is arrested in Austria.
• 2019: A planned attack on a Christmas market in Vienna is stopped. Behind was a person of Chechen origin.