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The weekend in the US has been marked by a tough electoral campaign, with up to several electoral meetings a day for both candidates.
Joe Biden (77) received good support from former President Barack Obama (59), who, among other things, took a hard line against President Donald Trump (74) with eye-catching eye-catchers during election rallies in Michigan. Trump responded with election rallies in Pennsylvania and Michinigan, among others.
The New York Times figures for Sunday give the Democratic challenger the lead in the states of Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which were won by Trump in 2016. Avisa refers to an opinion poll conducted in collaboration with Siena College.
Biden has the biggest advantage in Wisconsin, where, according to the poll, he leads by 11 percent. At least he’s in Florida, where he leads by three percent.
– Irresponsible and dangerous
– Highest chance of winning since Obama
The New York Times cites “women, minorities, urban and suburban voters, young, old and new voters” as groups where the president loses support in all four states.
Voters who did not vote in the election four years ago, but who have already voted or plan to vote this year, support Biden by a clear margin.
Overall, the numbers suggest that Biden has the highest chance of winning since Obama in 2008, according to the newspaper.
Squashed in new measurement
A recent national poll published by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows that Joe Biden has a ten percentage point advantage over President Trump just days before the election.
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According to the poll, Biden receives 52 percent support, while Trump receives 42 percent.
In the same outlet’s previous poll, Biden led by 11 percentage points.
This is where Trump is leading
Yet Trump appears to have strengthened his position in certain groups of voters, including Spanish-speaking men in Florida, where the battle for voters is fierce. On the statistics website FiveThirtyEight, owned by ABC News, you can read that the latest poll by ABC News and the Washington Post gave Trump a slight edge in Florida.
He threw Trump in the trash
Another Sunday poll, conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. and reproduced by FiveThirtyEight, also gives Trump a slight edge on tip status, which Obama won in 2008 and 2012.
A new Des Moines Register poll also shows Trump leading Biden by 48 percent versus 41 percent in the state of Iowa.
Yet in an average of polls calculated from the site on Saturday, Biden takes the lead in all four states, as well as nationally.
No guarantees
Britain’s Guardian newspaper also gives Biden the lead in the four auspicious states, but emphasizes that nothing is certain, noting that opinion polls before the 2016 election gave Clinton a clear victory. Avisa also has reservations that several statewide clue polls did not report support for Trump in 2016.
The Guardian figures are based on an average of measurements across eight tip states from the past 14 days.
To win the US presidential election, a minimum of 270 votes is needed. If the state wins, it gets everyone’s votes. Florida has 29 voters.
Believes 700 deaths are due to election rallies
Trump responds
However, if his Twitter messages are to be believed, the president himself does not seem stressed by the latest polls.
– Our numbers look VERY good everywhere. “Sleepy Joe” is already beginning to retire from certain states. The radical left is going down and home, the president wrote on Twitter Sunday after several of the polls were released.
– Joe Biden called young blacks super predators. They will never like him or vote for him. They are voting for Trump, the president continues.
Must win in Florida and Ohio
American researcher Anders Romarheim from the Department of Defense Studies (IFS) has previously singled out Florida as one of two states the president will have to win if he wants to stay in the Oval Office.
– On the modern electoral map, from 1996 to today, no one has won without Florida and Ohio, Romarheim told Dagbladet on Friday.
The candidate who won Florida has won every election since 1992. A Republican has never become president without winning Ohio.
– Bill Clinton won in 1992 without Florida, John F. Kennedy won in 1960 without Ohio, but other than that, these two states in many cases become an expression of the national weighting of the two candidates. So I’m pretty sure that if one of these candidates wins both states, then they win the election, he continued.
