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Just hours before the last presidential debate, the distance between Joe Biden (77) and Donald Trump (74) continues to narrow. Biden’s lead is now down to 6.6 percentage points,
With a lead of 6, the race starts to be uncomfortably exciting for Biden. The American electoral system is screwed up so that Biden could lose the battle for the White House, even if he wins by 4.5 percentage points of the vote.
– All the polls of our average have been published this week, emphasizes the electoral analyst of TV 2, Terje Sørensen. Thus, the figures give a fresh picture of the position 12 days before election day.
– Local polls are even a bit weaker for Biden and hardly support a national leadership in the 6, adds Sørensen.
Trump steals 15 voters from Biden, now he needs 50 to win. Graphics: Helge Knudsen / TV 2
The states of inclination
As is well known, the American election is about gathering 270 or more voters. Today, Donald Trump passes Joe Biden in North Carolina and steals 15 new voters.
Thus, Trump has brought all the states back into what we call the “second line of defense” after the elections four years ago. Now you need 50 voters to win.
For Trump’s 50 missing voters, he must choose in the “first line of defense,” the states he won by the narrowest margin in 2016. He’s still way ahead, but in Arizona, TV 2 numbers now give him give Trump a realistic opportunity. Here, Biden’s leadership has almost completely disappeared.
The other states in the “first line of defense” are Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Everything indicates that the final battle will be here.
– No matter how you calculate, Trump must have at least three of the states on the list. Without Florida, you must have four. Statistically, therefore, it takes a lot, says Sørensen.
Differences between mean measurements
In the United States, the distance between the two most cited average measurements begins to increase. Realclearpolitics.com gave Biden a 7.5 point lead Thursday morning, while the distance was 9.9 on FiveThirtyEight.com. The editor-in-chief puts more emphasis on what he calls “high-quality measurements” and last night accused the competitor of using “garbage” in their courts.
– There will always be differences between the models, says Terje Sørensen. Right now our average is cooler and that makes a big difference, he says.
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