Those infected in western Norway now spread the most – VG

In the FHI weekly report for week 12, they estimate that the breeding number (R number) in Norway has been 1.0 from March 9 to March 28, but at the same time they emphasize that there is great variation between counties.

For Vestland, the R number is calculated as 1.9. This means that each infected person infects an average of 1.9 new people.

ALSO READ: More about the R number on Faktisk.no

In the weekly report for week 11, the Vestland R-number was calculated at 1.0 between February 5 and March 21.

Now, it is very likely that the R number has jumped in the wrong direction in the county.

– The outbreaks of infections in the regions are very important for the R number. Now there has been an increase in infection in Bergen, among other things, from a very low level to a fairly high level. This does not mean that the situation is necessarily very dramatic in western Norway now compared to eastern Norway, but it does mean that there has been a big change in recent weeks, assistant health director Espen Rostrup Nakstad tells VGTV.

The figures are enough for the NIPH to establish that the trend in the number of cases in western Norway is increasing, but the calculation of the R number in the county is still subject to great uncertainty.

According to the West Norway database, FHI number analysts can say with 95% certainty that the actual R number is between 0.9 and 2.8.

By comparison, the R number in Oslo is calculated to be 0.7. There, the actual R number with 95 percent certainty is between 0.5 and 1.0.

“There has been an increase in the number of reported cases in Vestland County in recent weeks. In addition to several ongoing outbreaks in various settings in Bergen in week 12, there have been several outbreaks in various municipalities that have affected the situation of infection in the county, including outbreaks in Stad, Stord and Askøy, “writes FHI in the weekly report.

– What can be done to reduce this number?

– It will probably be the same as has been done in Oslo, Viken, Vestfold, in Haugalandet and in the Bodø region, that is, implement measures to reduce mobility, ensure that people have less contact with each other and carry out tests and follow-up effective infections. . We see that municipalities have been successful with this, and they have also previously succeeded in and around Bergen, says Nakstad.

However, the level of infection in western Norway is lower than in Norway as a whole.

According to FHI, 79.8 have tested positive for. 100,000 inhabitants in western Norway in the last 14 days.

In Norway as a whole, this number is 209.5.

In Viken it is 384.5 and in Oslo 525.5.

Trøndelag has the lowest infection of the country’s counties at 15.1.

In western Norway, 54 percent of positive samples as of March 28 have been tested for variants of the virus.

The British variant was detected in 85% of the positive samples analyzed, while the South African sample was detected in 3%.

In weeks nine and ten, a total of two cases of the Brazilian variant were also reported in western Norway.

For all of Norway, NIPH’s numerical crusher calculations are good news.

They write that they have calculated that the reproduction number in Norway a week ago was 0.8, and that the actual R number with 95 percent certainty was between 0.6 and 1.1.

With a probability of 94 percent, the R number was 1 or less nationally. Therefore, the infection is most likely subsiding.

“The probability that the reproduction rate is greater than 1 is 6 percent,” states the weekly report.

FHI Chief Medical Officer Preben Aavitsland comments on the weekly report as follows on Twitter: