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– It is important to reduce the number of infections to a significantly lower level so that as many intermediate infection control measures as possible can be eliminated without the infection rising again rapidly, says Deputy Health Director Espen Rostrup Nakstad to Dagbladet .
Last week, he stated that we should get to the level of infection that we had in early August because a significant reduction in infection control measures is recommended.
The National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) weekly report for week 31, released on August 5, shows that we still have a long way to go before the spread of infection in Norway returns to the same low level as late of the summer.
In week 31, only 196 proven cases of infection were reported, nationwide, for an entire week.
And the week before, which lasted until August 2, only 94 cases of contagion were reported.
Ten times greater
By comparison, Oslo alone has had an average of 161 new infections a day in the last two weeks, and more than 1,000 infections detected per week.
At the national level, the numbers are not very encouraging either, although we are now seeing a decline.
At weeks 45 and 46, the number of new infections was around 4,000 per week. At week 47, a small decrease was observed with 3621 confirmed infected.
Preliminary NIPH figures for week 48, that is, last week, show that the decline continues. So far, the National Institute of Public Health has registered 2,574 verified cases of infection this week.
Although more records are expected before NIPH releases the Week 48 figures on Wednesday, there is no question that the infection arrows now point down.
However, infection rates are still more than ten times higher than in early August.
For the next six months, the danger that the epidemic will spiral out of control at local, regional or national level will continue to exist, according to the latest risk report from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH).
50-100 cases
The Norwegian Health Directorate believes that we must reduce between 50 and 100 daily cases of infection at the national level before we can claim again that we have good enough control of the situation.
– It is not known exactly how low we have to be, but experiences this summer showed that at a level below 50 daily cases of infection in Norway we could live relatively normal lives without many invasive infection control measures. says Nakstad and elaborates:
– In August, we saw that municipalities could manage most outbreaks effectively, provided the infection pressure was 50 to 100 daily cases of infection. When the registered infection exceeded 100 daily cases in the country, it began to be a challenge in some places, says the deputy director of health.
Nakstad notes, however, that many other factors come into play, including the amount of imported infection arriving in the country in the same period and which age groups are responsible for the spread of the infection.
– So there is no final decision on this, but the lower it is, the more normal it is that we can live until we get a vaccine, says Nakstad.
– Fragile situation
FHI notes that we have had a few weeks with a sharp increase in infection rates, and a particularly high level in Oslo and the Oslo region. Bergen has also had high infection rates. The situation that there are particularly significant challenges with the epidemic in large cities is a pattern that we also see from the outside.
– The decline we are seeing now is rewarding, but unfortunately it does not give reasons to relax yet. We have a fragile situation and we must continue to heed infection control advice and have infection control measures in place so that we do not risk the arrow turning and increasing infection rates again. says department manager Line Vold at FHI.
– SKIRT: The department’s director, Line Vold of the National Institute of Public Health, believes the decline in infection rates is rewarding, but cautions against dropping shoulders. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB
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She notes that FHI has not set a limit for exactly how many cases of infection reported per day is an acceptable level.
– A general assessment of the situation must be carried out, and we must take into account more things besides the number of infected people who are registered to make a good general assessment. Among other things, we must observe how many of those who test themselves test positive, how the development has been over time and what the R number is like, that is, if we have an increasing or decreasing trend in infection, he says Vold.
He also believes that the ability of municipalities to carry out infection control work, how many infected people have an unknown route of infection, and the ability of hospitals to provide good treatment to all will influence the assessment.
