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Only two presidents have not been re-elected with similar growth in the stock market. Donald Trump could be the third.
ECONOMIC GROWTH: With Donald Trump as president, the U.S. stock market is up more than 30 percent, according to CBS.
KEVIN LAMARQUE / Reuters / NTB
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It shows figures from the Socionomics Institute, which have been presented by CBS.
Throughout his presidency, the American economy has been important to Trump. According to CBS, the US stock market has risen 32 percent in the last three years.
And if one is to believe Trump’s repeated statements during his election rallies, this is just the beginning. Despite the crown pandemic, the president believes that next year will be one of the best of all time.
If you look at the statistics that CBS compiles, it is perhaps not surprising that Trump is so concerned about the economy. Up to 14 of the 16 presidents who have run for reelection with a stock market rise of more than 20 percent have won subsequent elections.
According to the channel, only George W. Bush senior and John Adams have not been re-elected with such figures. Bush lost the election to Bill Clinton, even though the stock market rose as much as 38 percent. Adams was president in the late 18th century, when state banks increased in value by about 30 percent.
“A positive trend in the market is historically associated with the victory of the incumbent president,” said Matthew Lampert, director of the Socio-Economic Institute. CBS.
They claim that statistics indicate that Trump will win the election with a probability of 87 percent.
INSPECTED: The US Presidential Election is in its final phase and will be formally held on November 3. Here, Trump throws hats to the public during a political rally on September 30.
Alex Brandon / AP
You can point to Biden instead
This gives Trump a historic advantage in terms of winning the election. However, there are several reservations that can be taken into account.
According to CBS, some stock market experts have claimed that the recent stock market surge is actually in favor of Biden, not Trump. Among other things, they have pointed out that the rise in share prices since September has been in line with the fact that opposition candidate Biden has taken the lead in opinion polls.
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Furthermore, researchers from the Socionomics Institute have stated that the stock market is a better indicator of who is chosen when growth spreads across different sectors. During the Trump presidency, growth has been primarily in the tech sector.
Additionally, the recent growth described is based on the Dow Jones and S&P 500 stock indices, which measure only a fraction of the overall stock market. If you look at the entire public stock market, the stock is down 10 percent, according to CBS.
HIGHER TAXES: Unlike Trump’s opponent, Joe Biden has proposed raising taxes on large and rich companies.
Thomas Nilsson / VG
Smoother than polls
However, the director of the Socionomics Institute, marketing strategist Robert Prechter, argues that the growth of the stock market may influence the next election.
– Trump is a controversial figure and 2020 is far from a typical election year. Each choice has its reasons why it may be different, but the story is what it is. We’ll see if he can hold out this time, he tells CBS.
also read
Hidden Factors That May Give Trump Victory
LPL Financial’s chief marketing strategist, Ryan Detrick, also comes to a similar conclusion:
– We think it will be much more even than opinion polls suggest at the moment, as we also saw in 2016, he writes in a note on the company’s website.
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