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The beginning of 2021 was not exactly how we envisioned it. Records of infections, vaccine delays and constantly new measures to treat
The capital has soon been closed for five months, and after the last press conference on Tuesday, the rest of the country also had to comply with very strict restrictions.
In the latest FHI modeling report, they estimated that the peak of this wave of infection could last until May, in the worst case early June.
Now Deputy Health Director Espen Rostrup Nakstad says he dares to be more optimistic.
– The peak of this wave of infection may have been reached at Easter, he believes.
Signs of flattening
After several infection logs recently, Nakstad believes that we now see signs that the infection is flattening out.
– We are already seeing signs of flattening and there is no reason why this should not continue if the implemented measures persist and compliance is good, he says.
Although the peak may have been reached at Easter, Nakstad cautions against easing measures too quickly.
– There is a great risk that the infection will escalate again if the measures are removed before the level of infection is low enough. It is also very likely that we will have new outbreaks of infection in counties that currently have little infection. Experience has shown that it is then a few weeks before the infection clears, Nakstad says.
SUMMER: Maybe we can enjoy the sun, summer and swimming this summer without the most intrusive measures. Photograph: Stian Lysberg Solum / NTB
– Fewer intervention measures
If the measures work, Nakstad believes we can expect to live more normally this summer.
– If we enter the month of May with low contagion rates and the municipalities continue to react quickly to local outbreaks, we will be able to live more normally at the beginning of the summer holidays. Vaccination coverage will help us with this too, he says.
At the same time, he thinks it is probably the level of infection among unvaccinated young adults that will most affect the reopening rate.
– This is because many more people in their 20s and 40s seem to get sick from variants of the mutated virus. The wide spread of infection in these age groups is affected to a small extent by the fact that the elderly have been vaccinated, Nakstad says.
If we can reduce the level of infection to a low enough level, he still anticipates a summer with fewer measures.
– If the level of infection is low, you can probably still keep the pandemic under control with fewer intervention measures, as we achieved last summer when no one in Norway was vaccinated, says Nakstad.
Brighter season
Although the time we are in now is difficult, the deputy director of health reminds us that there are more bright spots ahead.
– We will receive more vaccinations in the coming months and the bright season makes it easier to be outdoors without risk of infection, he says.
Nakstad also notes that most people are still very good at wearing face masks. In addition, health authorities plan to use various rapid tests to keep the infection out of schools.
– All of this contributes to making the R number easier to keep below one into the summer, he says.
