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Can Norway still protect the crown elders? Fortunately, things are going better so far than many people think.
The infection is increasing throughout Norway. 1,686 new cases were discovered last week, an increase of 97 percent. But among those infected, only 18 people are over 80 years old. Photo: Bjørge, Stein
Infection rates skyrocketed last week. The number of patients increased. On Monday, the Oslo City Council and the government introduced new, stricter infection measures.
– We also see that the infection has started to spread to older age groups, Prime Minister Erna Solberg said at an urgent press conference on Friday.
– The situation is acute, Health Minister Bent Høie told NRK Politisk kvarter on Wednesday morning.
How should we understand the infection situation in Norway now? Are we capable of protecting the elderly and the most vulnerable?
Aftenposten has taken a closer look at infection rates among the elderly.
They show, fortunately, that so far things are going better than was feared. Especially in the capital.
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The infection is high, the death toll is low. Oslo still manages what the big European cities cannot handle.
Oslo: Little infection over 70 years
Oslo is the place in Norway where the virus spreads the fastest.
The city is “bright red” with 111 new cases per. 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks. Last week 468 new infections were registered.
But so far there is no indication that the infection is spreading from the very young to the oldest and most vulnerable.
- Only ten people over the age of 70 were infected in Oslo in week 43, according to figures from the Oslo municipality.
- Eight people in their 70s, one in their 80s and one in their 90s were among those infected last week.
Throughout the fall, health authorities have warned that the infection should spread to the elderly. The figures show that things have gone better than feared.
This is also an important explanation for why the number of patients has not increased more in Norway so far.
The NIPH estimated two weeks ago that there would now be around 70 patients in Norwegian hospitals with COVID-19. On Wednesday, there were 50 hospitalized patients. The number is increasing, but much less than what the health authorities expected.
In the past four weeks, a total of eight infected people over the age of 80 have been detected in Oslo, according to weekly reports from the municipality.
The exception in Oslo is the outbreak in Omsorg + in September, where eight residents were infected.
Nationally: few over 80, but over 60 years
National figures show the same trend for the oldest.
- Across Norway, 18 people over the age of 80 were infected last week. The infection among the oldest has been between 7 and 18 weekly cases since August.
- In the 60-79 age group, however, there is an increase. 133 people over the age of 60 were infected last week. That’s 56 more than the previous week.
However, the national NIPH figures are not as detailed as the local Oslo figures. The reason is that FHI uses more general categories and does not differentiate between 60 and 70 year olds.
This weekend, the Norwegian Health Directorate gave its advice to the government on how the crown’s rules should be tightened. They noted that there have been “very few proven cases” among the elderly despite the increase in infection in society.
But the increase in the percentage is now higher among people between 40 and 79 years old than among young adults.
Why are these numbers so important?
The pandemic has shown that it affects different generations very differently.
When infection rates rise among the elderly, it is a sure sign that patient numbers and death rates will increase in the coming weeks.
The risk of dying is 220 times higher for an 82-year-old than for a 20-year-old, according to US health authorities.
22.3 percent of people in their 80s who become infected will need hospital treatment, according to FHI.
– Fortunately, the numbers are not very high, but they have increased more in percentage terms among the elderly than among the 20-29 age group, says Deputy Health Director Espen Rostrup Nakstad. It also refers to various hospitalizations.
– In Oslo, only ten people over the age of 70 were infected last week. Doesn’t it show that one is currently succeeding in preventing the infection from reaching the most vulnerable?
– Fortunately, it shows that older people protect themselves well and that the general level of infection in Norway is still manageable. Most older people do not gather in typical places where we see outbreaks, such as in parts of work life, in universities and colleges, in nightclubs and the like.
Less aging in Europe
Finland and Norway are the countries that have managed to protect their elderly the most so far this autumn.
In Norway, the infection rate among the elderly over 65 is 12.1 percent. 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks, according to the latest ECDC risk assessment based on figures from week 42.
In countries like the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and Slovenia, the infection rate among the elderly is 20 to 30 times higher than in Norway.
This also partly explains why several countries in Europe are gradually closing down again. Hospitals are full of elderly patients. Mortality rates have started to rise.
Sweden has explained its high death rates with the way the virus broke out in nursing homes. In Norway, the example of the disaster is what happened in Vallerhjemmet in Bærum in April. Sick employees cared for healthy elderly people. Healthy and sick together.
When the infection was discovered by chance on March 26, Vallerhjemmet had 42 residents. A month later, 12 were dead.
A lot has happened since then. And one has learned.
Patients living in nursing homes are at the end of their lives and it is important to weigh the measures that are implemented to limit the infection is not too invasive, says nursing home doctor Kjellaug Enoksen. Photo: Donation poster
Hard to avoid breakouts
Kjellaug Enoksen is the leader of the Norwegian Association for Geriatric and Elderly Medicine. Nursing home physicians work closely with the elderly.
She emphasizes that good routines for evaluating both employees and patients are crucial.
The infection is then detected quickly and steps can be taken to limit the infection.
It is important to have control over the visits and activities in which the elderly participate in nursing homes, he believes.
At the same time, he believes that nursing homes should facilitate as normal a life as possible and have enough competent staff.
– It is not clear when we will get the covid-19 vaccine. Patients living in nursing homes are at the end of their lives. It’s important to weigh the measures that are put in place to limit the infection, so it’s not too intrusive, says Enoksen.
