The consequences can be great – VG

The National Institute of Public Health writes this in its latest risk report, where, among other things, it has examined the risk posed by the new virus mutation in the UK for Norway.

If the virus has a higher reproductive value but otherwise has the same characteristics, the spread of infection may be faster. This may mean that infection testing and monitoring needs to become even more effective, and that more measures to reduce contact may need to be introduced in some parts of the country, the National Institute of Public Health considers.

– If such a variant eventually displaces the “old” virus in Norway, it will take much more to keep it under control. Let’s say the variant has an R (replay value, journal.anm.) That is 0.4 higher, then it must have measures that are correspondingly more effective in pushing R down below 1 again, explains Preben Aavitsland at FHI.

– Most important will be the most effective testing and infection monitoring to control known and potential sources of infection. So it may be necessary with more contact reduction measures of the kinds we’ve had before.

At the moment, the Norwegian authorities have introduced an entry ban for direct flights from the UK. Everyone who has arrived from the UK in the last 14 days has also been asked to test themselves.

– The variant also represents a risk for Norway.

FHI considers it unlikely that the virus can be eliminated in the UK. It has already spread to Denmark and the Netherlands, among others. In Denmark, however, there is no indication that the mutation is important for the development of the epidemic. He may already be in Norway, FHI has previously said.

– The variant is likely to spread across Europe and eventually reach Norway, if it is not already here. The consequences of this can be great. Our most preliminary assessment is therefore that the variant also poses a risk to Norway, writes FHI in the report.

If the variant is already here, it is not likely that it has been here for a long time, writes FHI. This is because monitoring would likely detect a variant with a significantly higher dispersion potential.

Think that the mutation occurred in a human being.

FHI writes that the variant of the virus likely developed rapidly from a long-term infection in a person with a weakened immune system.

– It is unlikely that the variant has evolved through gradual changes among the people of England. So I would have been caught up in virus monitoring earlier, writes FHI.

At the same time, they write that development may have taken place over time in other countries with no or weaker surveillance for the virus. Another alternative is for the mutation to develop in animals that were infected by humans and then passed on to humans.

Waiting for more knowledge

The new virus may appear to be more contagious, writes FHI. However, several things are uplifting, but all the factors below are examined in more detail:

• Currently, there is no evidence that it causes a more serious disease.
• There is also no evidence that tests are less sensitive to this virus.
• At the moment, changes in the virus are also not expected to impact immunity after suffering an illness, but this will be mapped in more detail.
• According to the NIPH, UK authorities say there is currently no evidence that the effect of the vaccines has been affected. However, the FHI writes that with the mRNA vaccine types (like the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine) and the vector vaccine (like the AstraZeneca / Oxford vaccine) a genetic code for an antigen is injected. If this antigen changes in the meantime, it may affect the vaccine’s ability to make it immune, but it is not yet clear whether this will apply to the new variant.

FHI awaits more information on immunity after infection, immunity after vaccination and the severity of the disease course during the week.