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ILSENG (Dagbladet): Snowflakes easily fall on the man who is currently leading Norway’s biggest party. At his home on the Ilseng Farm in Hedmark, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum is at his ace. He is also in the polls.
In the latest party barometer this year, what many have long expected is happening and has been confirmed as a trend by other polls: the Center Party has overtaken the Labor Party and is the largest in the country.
– I take this as a people’s work order. The Center Party has been clear over time in securing jobs in Norway when this crisis is over and in having services close to the people. More and more people see the value in him, Vedum tells Dagbladet.
An increase of a formidable 3.7 percent gives 22.3 percent support for Sp. The Labor Party does not get a boost from the weak levels it has been at recently, and is 21.1 percentage points lower than in November.
However, the two parties only need one term to have a single majority in the Storting. With SV there will be a majority with a clear margin.
Problem for Erna
For the Conservatives and Erna Solberg, the party barometer is very bad news. The party not only sees the second weakest result since the 2017 elections. With a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, the largest of all, support for the Conservatives is measured at 18.9 percent.
Conservatives have fallen steadily in polls since May. The December poll is now well below the result of the 2019 elections and up to 7 percentage points behind the previous parliamentary elections.
And the analysis of the Ipsos number analyzers is clear: It is no longer enough for the conservatives to push KrF and the liberals over the threshold. The Conservatives and the Liberal Party must also be strengthened, at the expense of the high-flying Center Party.
– If we assume that KrF and the Liberal Party cross the threshold and win eight seats each, as they did in 2017, the Conservatives and the Green Party need a total of 69 seats. They haven’t had that since December 2018, says Maria Rosness in Ipsos.
– The Conservatives and the Liberal Party must go hunting for voters, and given the poor results of the Labor Party, the Center Party is the obvious opponent, he says.
Steal more
Ipsos’ background figures show that in absolute numbers it is the Labor Party that filters the most voters to the Center Party. But this leak means less for the very question of government formation, because the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party are partners in the alliance.
It is the voters that the Center Party has attracted from the bourgeois side who are important in this context. Of the lost voters of the Conservatives, 8 out of 10 go to the Center Party.
In total, the bourgeois side has lost around 45,000 voters to the SP, calculated from an average of the polls of the last six months.
The FRP and the Conservatives together account for just over 35,000 of these.
– Both the conservatives and the Green Party lose voters in favor of the Center Party, but relatively speaking, it is the Green Party that filters the most of the two. It’s important for them to recoup both losses for the Center Party, but in isolation it’s more important to recoup FRP losses than the Conservatives, Rosness says.
The Labor Party also attracts some voters from the bourgeois side, but it leaks so much to the rest of the left, and then first and foremost to the People’s Socialist Party, that it does not make up for the loss.
Vedum himself will not answer whether the goal of the Center Party now is to become the country’s largest party in next year’s elections, but he makes it clear that he feels the pressure:
– We notice a difference now that several other parties are attacking us because we are doing well at the polls, but the Prime Minister has been attacking the Center Party for a long time. They can only do that, so that people can judge for themselves.
This is how they should clean
He will draw the «letter Erna»
Conservative vice leader Tina Bru is quiet when commenting on the poll.
– We want to be taller, but fortunately this is only a measure. In the vast majority of measurements, we have received more support, he says.
She answers the question of how they can stop the flight of voters to the Center Party by highlighting Erna Solberg.
– Next year’s election will be a choice between Erna, Støre or Vedum as prime minister. With Erna at the helm, we will work to earn the trust of the voters. We will show that we have the best solutions to get Norway out of the crisis safely and create more jobs across the country, he says.
Government wear
According to Rosness, the growth of the SP is due both to discontent with the Labor Party and discontent with government policy.
– The Labor Party has not managed to realize its role as an opposition party, and this may explain some of the advances of the SP. There has also been opposition from the population to several of the government’s reforms, and these are issues that the Center Party has marked as a clear opponent, he says.
Rosness adds that seven years in power is also a long time in the Norwegian context. She thinks she sees clear traces of the government’s wear and tear.
– This can erode voters’ perception of collaboration. When there is an opposition party that can clearly criticize the current government, it can appear that the ruling parties are fighting the wind, he says.
