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On Sunday, Russia’s three-day regional elections open, and the question many are asking is to what extent dissatisfaction with the Kremlin will become apparent when voters go to the polls.
Opposition leader Alexei Navalny is in an intensive care unit in Berlin, where doctors have determined he was poisoned during a visit to Siberia last month. No one knows who is behind this, and the Kremlin leadership calls the accusation too absurd.
Navalny was on tour to urge unity in the fight against President Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party when he allegedly ingested the Novitshok neurotoxin, which was developed for military use during the Soviet era.
Big protests
Further east, in Khabarovsk, just over 8,000 kilometers from Moscow, tens of thousands of people have demonstrated for several weekends in a row against Putin’s decision to overthrow the murderous governor of the region, who belongs to the Liberal Democrats. .
The demonstrations in Khabarovsk are among the largest and most extensive Putin has experienced during his reign, and discontent is simmering in several other Russian regions as well.
How widespread the discontent is, three-day gubernatorial elections in 18 provinces and territories can provide answers. He will also be elected in eleven provincial assemblies, as well as local government in 22 regional capitals.
The poisoning was a sign
The poisoning of Putin’s sharp critic Navalny came at a very delicate time, says Martin Kragh, who heads the Russia and Eurasia program at the Stockholm Foreign Policy Institute.
– The people behind this act would send a signal to all in the Russian opposition and indirectly also a signal to all those who demonstrate and protest against the repression in Belarus, he believes.
– Navalny was probably attacked because the political leadership in Russia fears that something similar to what is happening in Belarus will also happen in Russia. That’s my interpretation, says Kragh.
Tactic
During the Siberian tour, Navalny visited the cities of Novosibirsk and Tomsk in an attempt to rally the opposition and get voters to vote tactically on the candidate who might have the best chance of defeating Putin’s candidate.
Such a tactic was successful during the State Duma elections last year, where United Russia surprisingly received a large cold shower.
In Russia’s third-largest city, Novosibirsk, both the Communist Party and the opposition led by Navalny are strong.
During the visit to the city, Navalny accused several local leaders of United Russia of corruption, including the party’s main candidate, Alexei Dzhulay. The recording of Navalny’s speech was posted online and has since been viewed by millions.
Navalny and his supporters support opposition candidate Daniil Markelov, but he was recently denied a nomination because a court ruled that two of the signatures in support of his candidacy were invalid.
Countermeasures
The election in Novosibirsk is seen as a litmus test for opposition tactics and Moscow’s countermeasures, especially ahead of next year’s national elections for a new State Duma.
According to the independent Meduza news service, several Kremlin-backed parties have formed solely to divide the opposition. Some of the Russian candidates are also trying to distance themselves from the party and Moscow by presenting themselves as independents.
– At the regional level, the picture is somewhat different. There, voters have more influence and power has a harder time using what is called administrative resources to get the result they want, says Martin Kragh.
Low confidence in the Kremlin
In the east, in Siberia and the Far East, which are up to eleven time zones from the Russian capital, trust in the Kremlin is relatively low and opposition to the central government is even greater.
Also in Irkutsk, in southeastern Siberia, and in the Komi sub-republic west of the Ural Mountains, it has been irritating that Moscow has appointed its own personally elected governors.
– If dissatisfaction is reflected in the election result, the Kremlin can get a slap on the wrist, even if it is symbolic, says Kragh.
– Even if the budget and resources are highly centralized and there are not many major decisions made at the regional level, it will still be a political signal. This has happened in recent years in several local elections where the candidate of the power apparatus has lost to, for example, the Communist Party or the Liberal Democrats, he points out.
Electoral fraud
The question is to what extent the Kremlin is shaken by what is happening in the Far East and West of the country, or by certain defeats in the elections.
Kragh recalls that the blatant electoral fraud was the culmination of widespread protests against President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus.
The same can happen now in Russia, believes Kragh, who recalls the massive protests when electoral fraud was revealed in the 2011 and 2012 parliamentary and presidential elections.
