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– Now there are patients who have to wait for medical care, and that says something about the seriousness of the situation, says Health South-East Director Cathrine Lofthus at a news conference Friday morning.
Both OUS, Ahus, Lovisenberg, Diakonhjemmet, Sykehuset i Vestfold, Sykehuset i Østfold and Vestre Viken, have been forced to increase the level of readiness and cancel planned operations as a result of the influx of corona patients in recent weeks.
– We know that when infection rates increase and are high, the number of admissions increases. Even if you have a crack in the number of infections, the number of admissions increases over time, before it gets squashed, says Lofthus.
The director says the situation in the region’s hospitals is being closely monitored and health trusts have had to change their staffing plans.
– There are some who, unfortunately, can change their Easter plans, says Lofthus.
Worried that young people will get sick
Forecasts: 1000 hospitalized
The health trust’s own forecasts, which are based on those prepared by FHI, provide an indication of what hospitals can expect if strict infection control measures do not work.
– When we compile the forecasts in our region, we see that in a three-week perspective, that is, the week after Easter, we expect around 500-600 hospitalized patients. With four weeks notice, we can expect 1,000 hospitalized patients.
EASTER CANCELED: Health South-East Director Cathrine Lofthus says hospitals are now changing their staffing plans for Easter. – There are some who can unfortunately change their Easter plans, she says. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB
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The director points out that the strict measures that have recently been introduced have not been taken into account in the model that calculates admissions.
The calculations also show that there may be 200 patients in the intensive care unit.
– Well, see if we don’t get the effect of the measurements, Lofthus repeats.
– Approaching an absolute maximum capacity
– Worried
The department director, Line Vold, of FHI, is concerned about the development of the hospitals.
– We are concerned about development, both with high infection rates, an increase in the number of admissions, and an increase in the proportion of infected who need treatment in hospitals. The number of new admissions is now on par with the spring of last year, and several hospitals in the eastern part of the country have expressed concerns about their capacity if development continues, Vold tells Dagbladet.
LARGE NUMBER OF PATIENTS: Ambulance staff prepare for a new patient at Ullevål hospital. In recent weeks, admissions have skyrocketed. Photo: Nina Hansen / DAGBLADET
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According to preliminary figures, it may appear that the increase in the number of infected is slowing down a bit, according to Vold.
– However, we know that spikes in hospital admissions often occur after spikes of infection, because it takes time from when people become infected until they finally get sick and need help in the hospital. Therefore, we must keep in mind that regardless of any flattening in the number of infections, we may see a continued increase in the number of admissions this week.
Increase in all age groups
The increased risk of hospitalization if infected with the English variant, which is now dominant in Norway, appears to increase in all age groups. According to FHI, the risk of hospitalization is 2.6 times higher than with the previously dominating coronavirus.
– For the youngest, the numbers are so small that we have no basis to say anything for sure, but in the age groups 20 years and older, our preliminary analyzes show that the risk is 2.6 times higher for admission if infected with the English variant that if you are infected with the “old” variant.
TO WORRY: FHI department head Line Vold says there is an increased risk of ending up in hospital if you become infected with the British variant.
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Among those infected with the British variant, 255 were hospitalized. This corresponds to 4.3 percent. Among those infected with the “normal” variant, 106 people were admitted. This corresponds to 2.5 percent, explains Vold.
– The proportion of people who entered was higher for people infected with the British variant than for other variants in all age groups from the age of 20, says Vold.
– Cabin people “higher risk” to pour
In week 11, 18 people between the ages of 20 and 29 were admitted to the hospital with the coronavirus. Ten of them had no known risk factors from before, writes FHI in the weekly report that arrived Wednesday.
As of Friday, there are 224 corona patients in hospitals at Health South-East. 67 of the patients are admitted to the intensive care unit, 39 on the ventilator.
