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The Socialist People’s Party and the Labor Party are the most active in the latest Aftenposten poll. Thus, the Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Socialist People’s Party obtain a clear majority, by a narrow margin.
The latest Norstat party barometer shows that the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party have a majority along with the Socialist People’s Party. But most are barely. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB
Neither Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre nor Social Democratic leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum want Red or ODM in a possible new red-green government. Therefore, the latest survey conducted by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK is good news for both.
It gives the three previous ruling parties in the red-green government, the Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Socialist People’s Party, 85 seats in the Storting. That’s enough to get most of the 169 seats in the room.
But the progress of the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party, both advancing 1.8 percentage points, is so small that the parties should hardly get out the champagne. Furthermore, the progress of both is less than the margin of error. The same is the SV progress of 0.8 percent.
Low party loyalty in the Labor Party
The figures in the background show something that hardly makes Støre happy. If you ask those who voted for the Labor Party last, if they would vote for the Labor Party if there were parliamentary elections tomorrow, only 65 out of 100 answered yes to that question.
Labor leaks voters to Vedum. But not just for him. The Labor Party is filtering both the “small voters”, the ones that stand between the Labor Party and the Conservative Party, the Conservative Party and more voters from the left to the left.
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The figures below show the net loss of Labor Party voters in the following parties since the 2017 parliamentary elections:
- Sp: 41,000
- SV: 26,000
- Right: 22,000
- Red: 17,000
25,000 of those who voted for Labor last now say they are not sure why they will vote now.
SP leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum is not that close to the Labor Party in support of the latest poll. Therefore, the question of whether Vedum should challenge Jonas Gahr Støre as prime minister is less relevant. Photo: Stein Bjørge
Bøhler effect for Sp in Oslo
At the same time that the Labor Party is filtering voters, Vedum has received new ones from almost every party.
The best known Labor voter to go to the Socialist People’s Party is the former Labor Party parliamentary representative, Jan Bøhler. A poll Norstat conducted last week for Oslo alone shows a clear Bøhler effect for Sp. The party garners support in Oslo of 4.5 percent in Oslo. That’s more than double since the 2017 election.
If that is the result of the elections, Bøhler will have a permanent seat in the Sp parliamentary group from 2021 to 2025.
Grim outlook for the Solberg government
The big picture shows a solid majority on the red-green side, if the MDGs are included. And it happens even though Rødt is again below the threshold. Erna Solberg, Siv Jensen, Kjell Ingolf Ropstad and Guri Melby have received only 74 seats in this poll.
Both the Liberal Party and the KrF are below the threshold. As a result, none of them get more than two seats.
However, the Conservatives may enjoy being the biggest party, but the advantage is less than 2 percentage points.
No visible national rally effect for Siv Jensen
708 out of 1000 respondents answered Respons questions. The measurement was taken in the period 20. -25. October. It is right after the national meeting of Frp, which was on Saturday October 17th.
In normal times, it is not uncommon to see an effect of a certain national gathering in opinion polls. But the FRP’s “one-day crown national meeting” does not appear to have been of any help to the FRP. The party has the second largest decline of all parties in the poll. However, it must be said that this is also within the margin of error.
Only Red has seen a narrower decline.
