[ad_1]
Election researcher Bernt Aardal thinks it may be unfortunate that the FRP supports the change of leader in the middle of an election year.
Last week, Siv Jensen surprised everyone when he told them that he would resign as FRP leader at the party’s national meeting in May. Now he wants deputy leader Sylvi Listhaug to take over as party leader and Solvik-Olsen to become deputy leader.
Jensen’s departure comes at the same time that the FRP is in crisis, with opinion polls up to the 6th century. But election researcher Bernt Aardal doesn’t think the party will go back to heaven just by naming Listhaug as the party’s new leader.
– There are very few quick fixes in politics. If it happened, it would be a surprise, Aardal tells Nettavisen.
If Listhaug is elected party leader, she only has four months to raise the FRP until the September parliamentary elections. Therefore, he believes that she may end up in a hurry.
Also read: – Listhaug is perhaps the most controversial politician we have
– Not very favorable
The electoral researcher from the University of Oslo emphasizes that the moment for the change of leadership is not the best.
– Changing the leader shortly after the election year is not necessarily very favorable for support. So it may well be that the Progress Party has to put up with, if not exactly a very bad choice, but an election in which it may not return to previous heights, says Aardal, and at the same time adds:
– A party that is so low must have a longer-term perspective.
He still believes that the FRP can reach its old heights again, but believes that the party depends on one of its most important issues being on the agenda.
– It is not the case that a miracle must occur for them to return to between 10 and 15 percent, but what we have seen with the Progress Party is that to some extent they depend on whether the issue of immigration is in the agenda. But now in the era of the crown, there are completely different questions characterizing the agenda, says Aardal, noting:
– So the possibilities may not be so well present for there to be immediate growth, but in any case, this issue of immigration, asylum seekers and refugees will not go away. There will probably always be room for a party that goes beyond the others on these issues, he says.
He also notes that the best-performing elections for the FRP, receiving about 20 percent of the vote, were elections in which immigration was not the dominant issue.
– So the FRP voter base is much broader than simple immigration, he adds.
Also read: FRP politician warns against Listhaug: – The last thing we need is a divisive leader
– A big surprise
There is also no doubt that Listhaug is popular with many within the FRP, despite the fact that she is also controversial and several FRP politicians have come out to warn against her as the party’s leader. One of them is the local team leader Silje Flaten Haugli in Tvedestrand Frp.
– She has been quite controversial both internally and externally in the party all along. The last thing we need is a divisive leader, Flaten Haugli told Nettavisen on Friday.
Also read: – That is why Listhaug creates such strong reactions
However, the election investigator believes that much will be needed if Listhaug is not elected leader.
– It will be a big surprise if she is not chosen. It’s been on the cards a bit, and it was interesting that Jensen introduced Listhaug and Solvik-Olsen almost as a little loner. She stresses that these two together will be her recommendation, because everyone knows that the two represent slightly different groupings or directions at the party, she says.
– Interaction will be crucial
Therefore, Aardal believes that it will be absolutely crucial in the future that Listhaug and Solvik-Olsen succeed in cooperating, if they are elected to the party’s new leadership team.
– Since Solvik-Olsen is also part of this solitaire, I think the interaction between them will be quite crucial. Of course, if there starts to be tensions between the two, which Listhaug has much harsher rhetoric than Solvik-Olsen seems to like, then there will be unrest within the party, he says.
He notes that Solvk-Olsen, among other things in Nettavisen, has come out and asked the party to stop using the term stealth Islamization, and has said they should speak more in agreement.
– It has a completely different rhetoric than Listhaug, so the interaction between them will also be quite decisive for where the Progress Party will rank on the political landscape, says Aardal.
Listhaug is a more controversial policy for many, and is known for provoking.
– She has been very good in that role, and that makes some people worry a bit that the Progress Party is heading more in that direction. But at the same time, we have seen now, especially in recent years, that it has had a more withdrawn and not so provocative role, says the electoral researcher.
Also read: This is what the media wrote about Norwegian politics on Monday, February 22
– she is popular
He refers to Listhaug’s role in the Oslo Frp exclusion case just before Christmas, where county leader Geir Ugland Jacobsen was expelled from the party, which he believes surprised some. Ugland Jacobsen wanted to lead the party in a more conservative national direction, and Lishaug then, along with Siv Jensen, took a firm stand against the politician.
“National Conservative is a term that I feel gives me a bit of a creep, to be completely honest,” Listhaug told VG.
– Afterwards, they probably backtracked a bit on the fact that she was too strong. Even Jensen has made statements that have been more conciliatory and a bit more cautious with the group that defines itself as national conservatives, Aardal says.
Also read: He was expelled by Frp – now they are a nightmare for Siv Jensen: – They are afraid of us
– But does Listhaug have an appeal for the voters who want to kidnap?
– That’s the big question. There is no doubt that Listhaug has had great popularity and appeal within the Progress Party. Various polls show that there are quite a few former FRP voters who have sat on the fence, who think they have not recognized the party. For those voters, I think becoming a leader Lishaug will help them identify with the party, he says.
Also read: New measure: Listhaug scares more than it seduces
– He has stomped
Aardal says it will be interesting if Listhaug also has appeal with more FRP voters than before.
– It will probably depend on the type of line and profile you adopt as a leader. Because there is no shortage of examples where she has gone to great lengths, including the statement about the game of magnets and a situation where she had to resign as minister, she says.
Listhaug claimed that former KrF leader Knut Arild Hareide licked the backs of the imams and, as is well known, had to resign as justice minister following a controversial Facebook post about the Labor Party and on July 22.
See Listhaug’s answer for previous statements:
Aardal points out that now more people believe the FRP may see a rebound in the polls, precisely because Listhaug may knock more of the former FRP voters off the fence.
– There are several who predicted that you may want to see a jump in measurements right after this is known, and it seems reasonable, but we’ll see, he says.
Also Read: Sumaya Jirde Ali On FRP Leadership Changes: – Has A Really Nasty Lump In Stomach
– she can surprise
In any case, Aardal believes that Listhaug should not be underestimated as a leader.
– It is clear that he has long political experience, he has been in politics for a long time and also in the leadership of the party. So I don’t think one should underestimate it, he says, noting:
– She has been a red rag for many in the Progress Party, so her job, if she is elected, is precisely to reassure people internally in the party. You can surprise and change your profile. It is clear that as the leader of a party, there are other considerations that you must take into account in addition to being elected by the same party, which is not necessarily responsible for the whole, he says.
Advertising
It’s been out of stock for 14 years – now it’s finally available again
