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The number of sales fell by 45 percent in April compared to last year, and start-up was cut by a third.
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Recent figures from home producers show a 45 percent drop in sales in April compared to the previous year. So far in 2020, total home sales have dropped 29 percent compared to the previous year.
The start in April is down 32% compared to April 2019, while the overall start so far in 2020 is down 11% compared to the same period last year.
– The revised state budget does not contain measures to maintain the necessary housing production and secure employment. This is very disappointing, says Housing Producers CEO Per Jæger in the message.
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The hunter warns that if the low sales figures continue in May and June, the lack of assignments will lead to layoffs and layoffs.
A “moderate forecast” based on sales figures for March and April indicates a reduced start-up of up to 10,000 homes annually, which will lead to 34,000 fewer man-years.
The report also indicates that more than half of members report new building assignments are missing.
– This corresponds well with the failure of home sales in March and April, says Jæger, adding:
– So far, the housing industry has managed to keep housing production under infection control measures, but we are concerned that this will not last beyond fall.
– It is not surprising
Chief Economist Nejra Macic of the Forecast Center believes the drop in new housing is not surprising after the 47% drop in March.
– There are two months of sharp decline, he tells E24.
Macic explains that they are conducting a survey in which respondents answer the question of whether they prefer to buy new or used homes.
– Here we have seen strong growth in those who want to buy second-hand homes. This is likely related to the drop in new home sales, and the second-hand housing market remains relatively stable, Macic says.
She believes that the situation may persist until the crown situation stabilizes.
– We have seen previously that new home sales fall in such situations with high uncertainty. When you buy a second home, you often get it fairly quickly, while you have to wait about two years before getting a new home. When uncertainty is high, it can be difficult to imagine what the real estate market will be like in the future, says Macic.
– Buying a used house can be a way to eliminate some of the uncertainty.
Increase in house prices in April
Surprisingly, house prices rose 0.5 percent nominally in April, with a considerable early decline.
Adjusted for seasonal variations, house prices ended with a decrease of 0.2 percent. In advance, DNB Markets thought prices would drop 3.0 percent.
At the end of April, house prices were 1.2% higher than a year ago.
– It is worrying that sales and commissioning of new homes have decreased considerably after March 12. When housing production declines sharply, the experience will lead to supply deficits and market imbalances at a later date. The deviation between estimated housing demand and the start of new housing projects is larger in the Oslo market, which is characterized by greater fluctuations in time than the rest of the country, says the CEO of the Norwegian Real Estate Agency, Carl O. Geving.
– At the same time, there are bright spots in the real estate market. We have indications that new home sales have picked up somewhat in late April and May, especially in Oslo. The effect of the shock after March 12 has diminished. The used housing market works very well depending on conditions. The interest rate level is historically low and several go back to work after the layoffs. These are factors that can help slow the decline in sales in the coming months, although we should expect a significant drop in the start of new housing projects during the crisis.
