Opinion Poll, Labor Party | New poll: Støre now loses voters to most parties

The Labor Party is giving new impetus to Sentio’s recent quarterly poll for the third quarter, conducted for Nettavisen and several other newspapers.

The party struggling to seize power after next year’s parliamentary elections garners 23.1 percent support. This is a decline of 2.2% compared to the second quarter, and is the largest decrease among the Storting parties.

– The Labor Party loses voters for all parties, except for the FRP and the Liberal Party where they are barely in the red, with 4800 and 2100 voters, respectively, says Martin Stubban in Sentio to Nettavisen.

Twenty-one percent of those who voted for the Labor Party in the 2017 parliamentary elections have now sat on the fence and are not sure why to vote. This corresponds to 166,000 voters.

– There are definitely opportunities here to mobilize for the Labor Party, but it becomes difficult with new conflicts constantly arising, says Stubban.

Since the electoral result in the 2017 parliamentary elections, the party is reduced by 4.3 percentage points, from a result of 27.4 percent.

See the results for all parts below.

– Great work ahead

On Monday, the Labor Party was also very successful in the latest TV 2 poll, with a record low of 18.4 percent. The party did the same in the September Nettavisen regular parliamentary elections, where it scored its worst result in Sentio polls in 17 years.

– It will be a great job ahead. We will use all our strength in the future to ensure safe jobs across the country, reduce differences between people and strengthen our common welfare, the party’s party secretary, Kjersti Stenseng, tells Nettavisen.

Stenseng still sees a bright spot in the measurement:

– There is still a majority that wants a new government and a new direction for the country. If we want to achieve a change of government, a strong Labor Party is needed, he notes.

Also read: If this happens, Erna wins again: it may be the first in recent Norwegian history

33,000 to the Center Party

By far the majority of voters make Labor their desired governing partner, the Center Party. 33,000 voters lose to Trygve Slagsvold Vedum’s party.

In the quarterly survey, the Center Party is Norway’s third largest party, with a result of 13.9 percent. That’s 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter.

But the Center Party has also taken politicians from the Labor Party in the last week. Last Thursday, it emerged that the profile of the Labor Party, Jan Bøhler, is switching parties to the Center Party, something that has created a fury among several Labor politicians.

Also read: Jan Bøhler is running for the Center Party elections; he is called a traitor

In the poll, a total of 9,000 Norwegians were asked why they would vote if there were parliamentary elections tomorrow, in the period from August to October.

Typically 1000 people are interviewed in such measurements, so the margins of error are lower than usual. In the measurement, all Sentio measurements from several different media are combined.

The margin of error is between 0.4 and 1.1 percent.

Read also: Vedum harshly against Frp: – Has made everyday life easier for criminals

Jensen: – It’s motivating

The Progress Party is leading the way in the third quarter, from 11 percent in the second quarter to 12.3 percent. This is an increase of 1.3 percentage points.

– It is motivating with another survey where Frp does it better. This shows that our voters appreciate a clearer FRP that is now ready for difficult negotiations with the government on the state budget, FRP leader Siv Jensen tells Nettavisen.

Jensen believes that there are several reasons why they are moving forward:

– Among other things, we are very clear that we want to reduce taxes and fees, for example, on the products that people usually buy in Sweden. It is about maintaining the jobs that have been created in Norway as a result of the closing of borders with our neighboring country. FRP will also fight to improve conditions for retirees and is the only clear alternative to a strict and fair immigration policy, he says.

But the FRP also loses a number of voters, especially to the Center Party (-26,000 voters), although the leak has been reduced compared to the second quarter (-35,000 voters).

FRP also continues to leak voters to the Conservatives (-14,000), but here too the leak is reduced compared to the second quarter (-26,000).

Otherwise, there are minor changes for the other parts in the survey. Rødt barely exceeds the barrier limit with a result of 4.05 percent, from 3.99 percent in the second quarter.

Here are the results for all parts:

Right: – This is good news.

In the quarterly survey, the Conservatives are the largest party in the country, with a result of 26.2 percent, which is 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. While the other government parties, Venstre and KrF, both fall below the four percent threshold, with results of 3.1 and 3.3 percent, respectively.

This means that the government, including the Progress Party, would lose its majority in the Storting, and we would probably have a change of government if the results were the result of the elections. In total, the bourgeois parties obtain 73 parliamentary representatives at the polls.

However, the Conservatives are very happy with the result for their own party.

– It is good news that the Conservatives are once again Norway’s biggest party. It gives additional motivation and confirms that many voters think Erna and the Conservatives are doing a good job in a demanding situation for our country. A large Conservative Party will be important to keep Erna as prime minister and for a policy to be implemented to create more jobs and include more people in working life, Conservatives second vice president Tina Bru tells Nettavisen.

Bru points out that the election is a long way off and says he still has faith in an election winner.

– There is still a year to go before the elections, and we will mobilize bourgeois voters for the strongest possible bourgeois side and show that together we defend the best solutions. Not least, I believe that the Labor Party’s desire to eliminate free choice of treatment for each individual will clarify the dividing lines. I think we can handle four new years with Erna as prime minister and a historic election winner next year, but before that, we must work every day until the election, he says.

But neither do the red-green parties, the Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Center Party have a majority (80 representatives). The parties in the survey depend on the support of ODM or Red for a majority.

Like Rødt, the MDGs finish above the threshold, with results of 4.8% in the third quarter. This is the same result that the parties obtained in the previous quarter. The parties would have seven and nine representatives in the Storting, respectively, against the current one in each game.

This is true for women

If you look at the background of the third quarter polls, you see that men vote more than women for the Conservatives, the Progress Party and the Center Party.

While women vote to a greater extent than men for the Labor Party, SV and ODM. However, more women than men are not sure why to vote (26% to 19%).

The background figures also show that the Labor Party, the Progress Party, the Conservative Party and the Center Party have the majority of their voters in the older age groups (40 and over). While SV, MDG, Venstre and Rødt have the majority of their voters in the younger age groups (under 30 and 30-39 years).

Check out the latest parliamentary polls from Nettavisene:

September: Measurement: worst job outcome in 17 years
August: ODM below threshold: Erna increases gap with Jonas
June: Erna Solberg Has Rushed Forward: Measurement Shows She’s Changing
May: Crisis Measurement for FRP and ODM: The Job Filters Voters in All Directions
April: Voters flee the MDGs: Støre’s majority wins
Mars: FRP bang in a new survey: – Recovery was short-lived

The Labor Party and the Green Party fight in Oslo

The quarterly poll also shows that the Center Party is strongest in northern Norway and central Norway, at the same time that the Labor Party and the Progress Party are fighting in Oslo.

In Oslo, the Conservatives, Social Democrats, the MDGs and the Red Party are relatively stronger than in other parts of the country.