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A summary of the last twelve months shows that Oslo prices rose 16.7 percent, according to figures from Obos. Nationally, prices increased 14.6 percent. However, the strong growth must be seen in light of an unusually strong price drop in December 2019, according to Obos.
At the national level, Obos prices in December last year were unchanged.
Continued low interest rates, even if we had a minor rise in interest rates towards the end of the year, will drive house prices up again this year, says Chief Economist Sissel Monsvold at Obos in a press release.
– House prices will continue to rise
Vaccination and lower unemployment as we gradually reopen society and get homes for sale also give reason to believe that home prices will continue to rise, Monsvold believes.
At the same time, he points out several factors that will slow down the growth of house prices:
- Unemployment will remain high, slowing down wage growth.
- Mortgage regulations are stricter than in 2020
– In general, this speaks of a house price increase of four percent based on land. In Oslo, we expect growth of around six percent, Monsvold writes in the press release.
She believes that Oslo prices will rise relatively due to the particularly low supply of housing relative to demographic needs.
– An already high price level pulls in the opposite direction, he writes.
In December, 448 Obos homes were sold in Oslo. That’s 42 percent more than the average for this month in the years 2016-2019. Compared to December 2019, turnover increased by 38 percent.
The price per square meter in December was NOK 69,497 in the Oslo area and NOK 59,989 nationwide.
The share that used Obos’s right of first refusal in Oslo increased from 25.5% in December 2019 to 38.5% in December 2020.
I think inflation will slow down until 2021
On Wednesday, Eiendom Norge will present its national second-hand home statistics for December.
– December is normally a month of low volume and weak price evolution. It will be exciting to see if this will also be the case in 2020 with a pandemic and zero interest rates, says Eiendom Norge CEO Henning Lauridsen in a press release sent ahead of the report’s presentation.
Handelsbanken Capital Markets notes in Monday morning’s report that the housing market is characterized by high activity and continued strong price growth.
– Annual house price growth soared to nearly eight percent in November and unless we saw an abnormal result in December, something we don’t believe in, house price growth for 2020 ended at around 4.5 percent calculated as a yearly average, writes senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov in the report.
This is well above salary growth for most people and shows how much it helps with low interest rates is amazing, Hov notes.
But the real interest rate momentum won’t last forever, and there is reason to believe that month-to-month inflation will slow until 2021, according to Hov.(Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We want you to share our cases via a link, which leads directly to our pages. Copying or other use of all or part of the content can only be done with written permission or as permitted by law. For more terms, see here.
