Norway is much more infected than previously thought

Between 54,800 and 73,000 people have been infected with the coronavirus in Norway, according to new estimates from the NIPH. This is 60 percent more than what the health authorities had previously thought.

How many have been infected with covid-19 in Norway? This has been one of the toughest questions since the crown pandemic.

Until last week, Norwegian health authorities estimated that between 34,600 and 43,500 people had been infected with corona in Norway.

The estimated number of infected has now increased by 60 percent to between 55,000 and 73,000 people. It appears in new estimates from the National Institute of Public Health.

This has consequences for several key aspects of the fight against the virus.

This is Norway’s new infection pattern

The reason why the estimate of the number of infected increases so much is the new knowledge based on the 11,000 people who have tested positive so far in Norway.

– So far we have assumed that the virus spread fairly evenly between the different age groups. When we look at the test data so far, we now see that some age groups are overrepresented while others are underrepresented, says University of Oslo professor of biostatistics and director of the Big Insight Center Arnoldo Frigessi.

He is central to the group that does FHI analysis on how the pandemic unfolds and how the infection spreads.

• The test results show that 26 percent of those infected since May belong to the age group 20-29 years, which represents only 13 percent of the population. In August, this group represents 30 percent of all new cases of infection.
• Children under the age of 10, as well as age groups over 60, are highly underrepresented.

– Therefore, we can no longer assume that the infection spreads in society according to the demographic pattern, says Frigessi.

Lower risk of hospital treatment

As a result of the new infection rate for Norway, FHI analysts have now “lowered” the overall risk of an infected person being admitted to hospital.

The overall risk of hospitalization has been reduced from 3.9% to 2.26%.

This does not mean that the virus itself has become less dangerous.

The reason is simply that those who become infected in the population are younger than at the beginning of the epidemic and are less likely to be hospitalized.

This is the reason why the number of hospitals was so low in August, when 1,653 people tested positive. Since August 1, 47 people have been hospitalized with Covid-19 as the main cause. Two new patients have been admitted to the intensive care unit during this period.

– If you get sick first, the probability of ending up in the hospital is the same. But when we look at the big differences in which age groups are most infected, it now means that 2.26 percent of those infected end up in hospital, Frigessi says.

Although 60% more have been infected and therefore perhaps immune, they still form such a small group that this has little effect on the overall spread of infection in society.

Can we detect the infection quickly enough?

Today’s new estimates by Aftenposten also shed light on another very important issue in the fight against the pandemic.

Is the health service capable of detecting new cases of infection quickly enough?

This is crucial to get started with infection tracking, quarantine, and other infection control measures.

In March, April and May, health authorities only managed to detect about 15 percent of those infected, NIPH estimates show.

The reason is that the proportion of tests was much lower than today due to lack of capacity and empty stocks. At the same time, the testing criteria were restrictive, so many were not allowed to test themselves.

In August, when up to 1.5 percent of Norway’s entire population was tested each week, the outlook looks much brighter.

Now 45 percent of infection cases are detected, the recent FHI analysis concludes.

“Once we have corrected the figures, we see that the probability that we can catch an infected person is about three times higher today than in March,” says Frigessi.

– Whether this is good enough or not, however, is another discussion.

The short version of what the FHI models say about the future is that the situation is quite uncertain.

Although the most likely scenarios are that Norway will be able to keep the spread of infection low, the researchers estimate, for example, that there is a ten percent chance of a strong outbreak during winter, where more than 1000 people will need intensive care in Norway. at the same time.

In August, municipalities managed to gain control of 32 different outbreaks across the country. The big question is whether the buds that will come during the fall can also be stopped.