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– At first they said “40 to 70 percent”. Someone said that 70 percent, and I am aware of that Statens Serum Institut i Danmark has provided new information. We just don’t know, health director Bjørn Guldvog tells Dagbladet.
In mid-December, British health authorities announced that a new variant of the coronavirus had been detected. The mutation quickly became dominant in the British epidemic.
On Wednesday, 135 cases of the variant were detected in Norway, and strict measures have been imposed on 25 municipalities as a result of the mutant outbreak in Nordre Follo.
However, no one knows for sure how much more contagious the British variant is than the one that first caused the pandemic.
Disparate numbers
70 percent more contagioussaid UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson during a press conference in mid-December.
Subsequently, this number has been questioned. Based on the latest FHI risk assessment, the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) of Denmark has estimated the relative R figure for the British variant to be 1.36. This means that it is estimated to be 36% more contagious than other variants.
However, FHI reserves the right that the Danish estimates are not directly comparable with the British ones, because they use different models and assumptions.
‘Modeling suggests that the scattering potential R of the English variant is 0.4 to 0.5 more (addictive effect) than in the previous types, and that this is mainly due to higher infectivity ”, is also indicated in the risk assessment.
– Many more countries
On Wednesday night, the government announced the strictest entry restrictions since March 12.
The triggering reason is that we now have very clear indications that many more countries than originally had the mutated virus have a fairly high spread, Prime Minister Erna Solberg (H) told Dagbladet after the press conference.
– This means that instead of specific measures against individual countries in our immigration and entry regulations, we must have a broad scope.
The Line Vold department director at FHI tells Dagbladet that FHI’s estimates of the infectivity of the variant come primarily from countries with a higher incidence in the population.
– It is the United Kingdom and Denmark that have carried out assessments on infectivity, and they are the ones we rely on.
Here the numbers differ.
– It has been said “from 50 to 70 percent”, it has been reduced to 40 percent, and there are also studies that have not yet been published that show significantly less infectivity than that.
– Great uncertainty
On Wednesday, E claim Hovig, director of the UiO Center for Bioinformatics, said such studies provide reason to suspect that the number may be as low as 5 to 10 percent. However, he emphasized that these studies have not yet been peer-reviewed.
– It just means that there is a lot of uncertainty here about what the exact number is, says Vold.
Nor does it rule out that the exact degree of dispersibility may depend on the situation.
– The behavior of this virus in Norway is also something that we will learn more about when we analyze how this outbreak has performed in Nordre Follo.
– You cannot bet
The Minister of Health and Sanitation Services, Bent Høie (H), admits that there is uncertainty associated with the figures.
– It’s supposed to be between 50 and 70. But this is changing and we probably have more knowledge about it, he tells Dagbladet after Wednesday’s press conference.
However, it is clear that the government is not willing to take risks:
– As the situation is now, we cannot bet that this is less contagious. We must use the best knowledge we have. It suggests that it can be between 50 and 70, but it can also be lower.
Towards ski tourists: – Not good
– Does not affect the measurements
Health director Bjørn Guldvog says the Norwegian Health Directorate has been aware of the uncertainty associated with the ability to spread since the variant was first detected.
– It may be that this virus has slightly different properties depending on where it is, how densely populated it is, etc., he tells Dagbladet.
However, the exact figure will not necessarily have a major impact on the Norwegian Health Directorate’s recommendations, he says.
– It probably won’t have a big impact on the measures we recommend now. In any case, this variety is very contagious. We already know the virus that we have had for a year. It has been quite contagious, and it has required quite powerful measures.
If a variant emerges with an even higher dispersibility, health authorities may have to “think differently,” says Guldvog.
– But as of today, we have reinforced many of the measures that we already use against the virus that we have been fighting for a year. The good news now, perhaps, is that while we managed to catch 40 percent of the infection this fall, it has now risen to 63 percent. So there has been a great improvement in the proportion of infections that we have managed to register.
