May have no foundation – VG

This week both CNN and the Daily NK website have written that the North Korean leader is seriously ill after an operation.

Daily NK claims to have a source that Kim underwent heart surgery at Hyangsan Hospital, a hospital just for him and his family, on April 12.

background: Kim Jong-un’s health uncertainty

Jo Inge Bekkevold is Senior Advisor to the Defense Studies Department of the Center for International Security. He says North Korea is probably the most difficult country to obtain intelligence, and especially about the situation of the country’s leader.

– Therefore, it is difficult to judge whether the rumors related to Kim Jong-un’s state of health are based on correct information, or whether more unsubstantiated rumors have emerged because he has not attended some ceremonies in recent days, writes Bekkevold in an email. mail to VG.

United States President Donald Trump said during his daily press conference Tuesday night that he does not know if the rumors are true, but that he wishes the North Korean leader “all good”.

Not shown in more than a week

Kim Jong-un has not appeared in state media since April 12.

– If it turns out that Kim Jong-un’s state of health is serious and that he will be sidelined as the country’s leader for an extended period, or permanently, this is a potential crisis not only for North Korea but also for region. Bekkevold points out that Kim Jong-un is in such a powerful position that a change in leadership will create uncertainty and instability.

For Professor Paul Midford at NTNU, it is also not certain that Kim Jong-un is really ill. He notes that South Korean sources believe the case is false.

– What surprises me is that South Korea is not consensual. They have a number of benefits of local intelligence. So I tend to his version that he is not seriously ill, he tells VG.

However, he does not rule out that Kim Jong-un may have undergone surgery. He notes that he did not show up for Grandpa’s birthday on April 15.

He also notes that the corona virus may play a role in whether the North Korean leader makes public appearances.

“It is too early to take it seriously (the CNN case journal),” he says.

Doubting the source

Vladimir Tikhonov is Professor of Korean Studies at the University of Oslo. He believes that the Daily NK is in no way a credible source.

– There is an English-run internet newspaper that uses North Korean shoppers as sources. The problem is that these defectors are people who live abroad and have very occasional contact with people in North Korea. They also need money, and Daily NK pays them, Tikhonov tells VG.

He believes that his ability to unearth interesting information is very limited.

– When it comes to what a US official told CNN, they monitor Kim’s health, which they usually do. So that in itself does not mean that something tragic and sudden happened, says the professor.

Tikhonov has watched Kim’s movements until April 12 and finds it difficult to find anything unusual about her appearance.

– Of course, it is not possible to exclude, but there is no necessary reason to speculate further. North Korea is a bit like Saudi Arabia. It is an absolute monarchy, and so it is understandable that speculation arises every time the top of the regime disappears. But so far, there is no credible reason to believe that something serious has happened in this regard, says the Korean professor.

He adds that it is also a normal procedure for the United States to make plans for different scenarios:

– Both the South Korean and the US military have emergency plans in the event of the sudden death of North Korean leaders. It is not new in itself.