Less risk of a second wave in Sweden – VG

Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell tells SVT that he does not believe the country is affected by a strong second wave.

– I don’t know exactly, but a large part of our population has had the disease and is immune. But in countries that quickly took tough measures, there are still plenty of people who can get infected, Tegnell says.

– The risk is considerably less since we have had a more extensive first wave.

Increases after opening

In Germany, the proportion of those infected with a crown has risen again, just days after Chancellor Angela Merkel cut measures in the country this week. Museums, playgrounds, and churches have reopened, and a week ago hundreds of students were allowed to return to school.

On Sunday, there are a total of 172,075 coronary cases in the country, and in one week the number of cases increased by 6,400 cases. From Friday to Saturday, the number of infections increased by 736, while from Saturday to Sunday it increased by 751 new cases.

In addition, the so-called figure R, which shows how many people on average an infected person contracts the infection, has increased to 1.1, according to the Robert Koch Institute of the German Infection Protection Authority (RKI).

An R number greater than 1 means that the spread of infection increases. As of Friday, RKI estimated the value to be 0.83.

Merkel has also emphasized the importance of continuing to be disciplined when it comes to social distance.

Last week, the country imposed a mandatory obligation on shops and public transportation.

– Stable development

Five new deaths were reported in Sweden on Sunday, which means 3,225 people died as a result of the coronavirus in the country.

Tegnell believes that development in Sweden is currently stable.

– It’s a little bit up and down, but there’s no sign that we’re going in at all, Anders Tegnell tells SVT.

The latest weekly report from the Swedish public health authorities shows that almost all figures from surveillance systems on the spread in Sweden are declining.

The amount of admissions to the intensive care unit is also reported to decrease. However, no estimates have been made for the evolution of deaths from covid-19.

Although Tegnell predicts a mild second wave in Sweden, the state epidemiologist believes the corona virus will return.

– This is not a disease that will go away. It will take effort all the time to keep him away. Or, away from that, I never think you can keep it, but rather at a reasonable level.

– Herd immunity in June

Math professor Tom Britton says flock immunity can be achieved when 40 percent of the population has had covid-19, which he says will occur within a month in Stockholm.

– We have used a simple model with the reproduction number 2.5 (when each person on average infects 2.5 people) and it comes with this that the immunity of the batch occurs at approx. 40-45 percent instead of 60 percent, Tom Britton tells Svenska Dagbladet.

Britton is a professor of mathematics at Stockholm University. The calculations were done with Pieter Trapman in the Department of Mathematics at Stockholm University and Frank Ball at the University of Nottingham.

– Our conclusion is that the immunity of the batch will mainly reach the Stockholm region in mid-June. But there may be a spread of infection here and there, Britton tells the Swedish newspaper.

The result is not yet assured quality, but Britton says they have submitted the report to the acclaimed Science magazine and are waiting for a response in a couple of weeks.