Largest right-wing party in polls, but most lose Erna Solberg

While conservatives fly high in Aftenposten’s September poll, both the Liberal Party and the KrF measure themselves below the threshold. And most of Erna Solberg smokes.

This month, the Conservatives are advancing 3.6 percentage points on the Aftenposten and NRK party barometer. Party support thus ends at 28.3 percent, as clearly the Storting’s largest party.

The job ends at 24 percent this month.

But this is not yet a poll of jubilation for Erna Solberg. Government partner KrF falls 1.3 percentage points in one month. The party thus floats below the threshold, which has a strong effect on Solberg’s parliamentary base. With an electoral result like this, KrF would lose seven of the eight Storting seats.

The Conservatives and KrF are the only parties with changes beyond the margins of error. Despite the fierce dramas of the party in both the Labor Party and the Liberal Party, their support and that of the other parties is at rest.

The problem for Solberg is that government partner Venstre is on the ground resting below the boundary of the barrier.

So there is no Guri Melby effect to track so far; The poll was conducted in the days after her unanimous nomination as the new liberal leader.

In short, the poll gives opposition leader Jonas Gahr Støre (Labor Party) a chance to secure a broad, diverse red-green majority, either supported by Rødt’s two terms or the Green Party’s eight.

This is in line with the average of all August measurements, according to the website pollofpolls.

The Conservatives keep their own voters better than the Labor Party

In this poll, the Conservatives are the only party with more support than the result of the 2017 elections. However, the bourgeois bloc has made progress since May.

The background figures show that the Conservatives are capturing former voters of the FRP, the Labor Party and the Liberal Party in particular. At the same time, the party keeps its own voters better since 2017 than the Labor Party, with a voter loyalty of 75.6 percent to 62.2, respectively.

But with KrF and Venstre below the threshold, it doesn’t help much.

Solberg: – A good comment

Conservative leader Erna Solberg is equally happy with the poll. At the same time, the Prime Minister emphasizes that the elections are a long time away.

– But this is a good response from voters that they are satisfied with the way we run the country, with the investment in schools, roads and, not least, infection control, he tells Aftenposten.

– Yes, do you see this as a kind of meeting around the flag in times of crisis?

– Obviously, it has a lot to say that we are in a special situation. At the same time, the political debate has become more normalized in recent months.

But even if the Conservatives are doing well, their government partners are struggling. Are you afraid that the success of the Conservatives will push KrF and the Liberal Party under the barriers of the election?

– I do not believe that it is the success of the conservatives that tilts them below the threshold, answers Solberg, who believes that both the Liberal Party and KrF will be able to rise. Both parties tend to do so in elections, he notes.

– When the Liberal Party holds its national meeting and establishes a new team, the politics of the Liberal Party will be more visible. And what’s interesting about KrF is that they have the most voters on the fence, and therefore the most to mobilize, he adds.

Ropstad: knows that it will be demanding

Solberg is correct in his assessment of KrF. KrF finishing below the poll threshold is due to the fact that up to 37.1 percent of its 2017 voters are unsure why to vote.

Kjell Ingolf Ropstad is not as happy as his prime minister.

– No, that’s too bad a figure, says KrF leader about party support of 2.8 percent.

– So, fortunately, this is just a measure. It is next year’s “measure” that means it all.

He adds that he knows that KrF’s long-term work to rebuild towards next year’s elections will be demanding.

– But the average measurements in August have been much better than this.

– Why are so many former KrF voters now insecure?

– No, I have no reason to draw conclusions about it. The good news about this, after all, is that voters who sit on the fence are easier to win back. So my clear job will be to show you how important it is that you actually vote for KrF.