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On the second day of Christmas, the first 10,000 doses of vaccine arrive in Norway. During Christmas another 40,000 doses will be administered.
The hope is that everyone in the risk group will be vaccinated before Easter and that the vaccination of the rest of the population is well advanced before summer.
But, how much faith do health authorities believe that the vaccine is the necessary cure to bring COVID-19 to society?
– We have great faith that vaccination will reduce the burden of disease from this epidemic, as those vaccinated reduce their risk of serious illness and death. We also hope the vaccine can stop the spread of the infection, but we don’t know yet, says chief physician Preben Aavitsland of the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH).
Uncertainty about the spread of infection.
Aavitsland says the purpose of vaccination is always to protect against disease.
– The coronary vaccination will protect very well against the disease. But we don’t know how well it protects people from becoming infected and possibly transmitting the disease, says the superior.
He says that it may be that some of those vaccinated may still be infected and transmit the infection. Therefore, it is not clear how well a vaccine will help affect the epidemic.
– The epidemic may continue, but people are protected against disease, says Aavitsland.
He notes that in the large vaccine trials, participants reported if they had symptoms and then had the corona test. It turned out that there were far fewer cases of illness among those who had been vaccinated.
– However, the participants were not regularly tested to see if they could have been infected without knowing it. Therefore, we do not know that there are fewer cases of infection among those who were vaccinated and therefore we cannot say that it will stop the spread of the infection in society, says the superior.
UNSAFE: Chief Physician Preben Aavitsland says we don’t yet know if a person who has received the vaccine could become infected and possibly infect others. Photo: Tor Erik Schrøder / NTB
Effect already in January
If all goes according to plan, the first vaccinations will be administered already at Christmas. The effect of the vaccine in these people will come quickly.
– We vaccinate to protect the vaccinated individual, who will probably get very good protection from a week after the second dose, he says.
Nursing home residents will get the vaccine first, and FHI aims to vaccinate everyone in that group during January.
– If we succeed, the effect will be noticeable. The threat of corona death epidemics will be much less, he says.
The hope is that the vaccine will work so well that we can look forward to a much more normalized daily life in the next year.
Reduction of measures
The measures by which we live are adjusted according to the development of the epidemic, which is measured, among other things, in the number of new infected, the number of new hospitalized and the number of new deaths.
– When we see that vaccination affects these figures, we can begin to reduce the measures. In the first place, we will see the flexibility of the measures that protect the risk groups, that is, the oldest, because when these groups have been vaccinated, they are no longer risk groups, says Aavitsland.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health will advise on making the measures more flexible and returning to a more normal daily life as soon as justifiable.
– We cannot now estimate when this will be. We must constantly weigh the burden of disease of the epidemic against the burden of measures, says the superior.
VACCINATION: Espen Rostrup Nakstad says that it may take longer than we think to offer a vaccine to the population. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
Will be able to hug the grandchildren
The deputy director of health, Espen Nakstad, is also aware that it is the measures among the elderly that will be alleviated first.
– We will probably first see the effect of the vaccine in the sense that residents in nursing homes can again receive visits from relatives without risk of infection, that is, approximately as many visits as before the pandemic. And the grandparents will eventually be able to be with the grandchildren and give them a hug with a clear conscience, he says.
Also, the combination of low infection rates and increased vaccination coverage will allow us to open many of the indoor activities that have been closed in the larger cities. It’s also not certain that a face mask and home office will be recommended everywhere for the next year.
– But the ground rules, like staying home when sick, checking yourself for symptoms and staying away from others, I think we have to live with that until much of the vaccination has been done in Norway, says Nakstad .
Vaccination again in a few years.
Nakstad predicts that it will take half a year, perhaps longer, to vaccinate the majority of the adult population.
– I hope that the summer of 2021 is more normal than in 2020, even though we have not finished all the vaccinations. We’re hoping fall 2021 will be a lot easier to get through than the fall we’ve just been through, says the deputy health director.
He is positive about the coming year, but believes that we must engage with the crown for several more years.
– I think the vaccine will solve many of the problems associated with covid-19 and take us out of the pandemic as we know it, but we will probably have to deal with this virus for several years. We may need to vaccinate people again in a few years. Perhaps the virus will eventually be marginalized. We do not know yet.
