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After a week of disastrous polls, Donald Trump has recovered somewhat over the weekend. Joe Biden now leads by 8.8 percentage points, down from 10 points before the weekend.
8.8 percentage points is still sound management. Has the race been run for Donald Trump?
– No. This is not over, says Terje Sørensen, the TV number analyzer 2.
He says that Biden must take charge of the “Clinton collapse.” In 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading nationally by 7.4 percentage points at this time. Three weeks later, the lead was reduced to 2.1 points. Which, of course, was not enough to make Clinton president.
LOST: In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton lost, despite clear leadership. Graphics: TV 2
– If Biden’s lead is reduced accordingly, he will finish 3.5 percentage points ahead of Trump on Election Day. It won’t be enough to win the White House, says Sørensen.
So far, the position in the electorate is the same as last week. Biden has 363 solid voters, while Trump has 175. Therefore, the president needs 95 voters to tip the election in his favor. That battle is in the swing states.
LEADERSHIP: Joe Biden still has a clear advantage. Graphics: TV 2
The situation in inflection states
Last week, we split the tab states in two. Trump’s first line of defense is the states where the president won by the narrowest margin in 2016. Here, Biden still has good control, although margins are somewhat weakened compared to last week. There is a special reason to continue the situation in Florida and Arizona.
On the second line of defense, Trump is now in a position to regain much of control. In Georgia and Ohio, Biden’s lead is down to tenths and hundreds, while Biden has a 1 percentage point lead in North Carolina. But even if Trump does secure these three states, he still needs to win back more states on the first line of defense.
– What does it take for Trump to win?
– A lot, says Terje Sørensen. But we never know what can come of surprises in the news image.
