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– Ok with progress, but Labor is still too low in this poll. At the same time, it gives a good feeling to see that we are once again the largest party in the country, Labor MP Bjørnar Skjæran tells Dagbladet.
Progress is 2 percentage points, from a dark starting point. The October Ipsos poll was the weakest for the Labor Party with 19.5 percent support.
Then you have to go back to December 2002 to find a figure weaker than the current 21.5 percent.
Solid majority
Strong figures from SV and, in particular, the Center Party still mean that a change of government is imminent next fall. Together, the three parties have a solid majority of 90 of the Storting’s 169 seats behind them.
– Our aim is to secure a stronger working majority with SV and Sp. Measurement shows that it is entirely possible, says Skjæran.
All three parties have also previously had a majority without Red and the MDGs, but the last time the majority was this clear was in March. At that time, the bloc gathered 93 seats behind it.
In the recent survey, Rødt is again below the threshold as a result of a solid 2.3 percentage point drop. The MDGs are over, as is the Liberal Party, which for the first time in two years has broken the magic 4 percent limit for equalization mandates. KrF remains below the line at 3.4 percent.
The only changes from last month that are statistically significant are the results of the Liberal Party and the Red Party.
Improved left
The 2 percentage point growth gives 4.6 percent support to a recently renewed Liberal leadership, led by Guri Melby.
– The EEA agreement is already in play
– This is very positive. We have had several polls that have shown progress after the national meeting, but this is definitely the biggest jump. I take it as a sign that we’ve managed to be clear on the message, Melby tells Dagbladet.
– Are you out of the valley of the wave forever?
– We will certainly see measurements going up and down in the future, but this strengthens me in the belief that we can make a good decision. We have important work to do now, leading the country through a difficult crisis and being able to continue prioritizing the climate, jobs for a struggling business community, and children and youth in a pandemic. That is our main task, and if we succeed, I am sure the voters will be happy about it, she says.
– Is that crazy, Erna?
Recession to the right
Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s Conservative Party is shrinking almost as much as the Labor Party is advancing. A support of 20.4 percent is not enough to maintain the status of Norway’s largest party.
– Is there hope for a new period with the government led by Solberg?
-No, hope is definitely not over. We have good faith that we will be able to mobilize our voters and retain a bourgeois majority with Erna as prime minister, rather than a very unclear leftist scheme led by Støre. We were worse a year before the 2017 elections, and this time we can also get up, says conservative vice leader Tina Bru.
– Too loose
But Solberg’s own popularity does not appear to decline to a degree similar to that of the conservatives.
– She is a much loved leader. This month, 56 percent say she does a good job as prime minister and only 8 percent say she does it poorly. This is still surprisingly high, says Maria Rosness in Ipsos to Dagbladet.
By comparison, in the peak month of April, 58 percent thought Solberg did a good job as prime minister.
– In other words, conservative support is back to what we saw before the crown, but support for Erna Solberg as prime minister remains high, says Rosness.
– I never experienced such discomfort
Erna’s problem
Previous measurements have indicated that the choice will be decided at the constraint limit. But now to Erna Solberg it no longer seems enough that the Liberal Party and KrF earn more than 4 percent.
– If we assumed that KrF had received as many seats as the Liberal Party now achieves, there would have been six more seats on the bourgeois side. It is still a long way from the bourgeois majority, says Rosness in Ipsos.
He comes up with a thought experiment: If KrF and the Liberal Party together won up to 16 seats, the FRP and the Conservatives must secure a total of 69 to reach the magic limit of 85 seats.
– They haven’t had that since Fall 2018. So no, KrF over the barrier limit hadn’t affected most, Rosness answers Dagbladet’s questions.
Lundteigen olm after settlement: – This just ended
Form of sp
The main explanation that Erna Solberg is a good distance from a new term as Norwegian Prime Minister is the strong form of the Center Party.
Despite the progress of the Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party is further strengthened in the November poll. A support of 18.6 percent is the second best since Ipsos began these measurements in 2001.
Wants Trygve as Prime Minister
Support for Sp dropped a bit during the crown crisis, but now it seems that Trygve Slagsvold Vedum has regained his form, says Maria Rosness at Ipsos. She believes that the party is benefiting from “strong dissatisfaction with the government reformers” and does not believe that the high support for the SP is a hoax.
– Progress is slow and solid and was only temporarily halted during the corona pandemic, he says.
In fact, in this poll, the Center Party gathers as many seats as the Conservatives, 36 in number. With 41 seats for the Labor Party, it is not unreasonable to say that the country currently has three parties of equal size.
Normalization – almost
Studying the average of the parties over the past six months before the crown crisis hit hard in March, Ipsos claims that virtually everyone has returned to support from before the pandemic struck.
Outside of «Maskorama»
The exception is the Labor Party. Labor is 2.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic average and, according to Ipsos, it appears to have suffered long-lasting voter losses in the Center Party.
– We must bear in mind that it will take time to bring back voters who have sat on the fence or gone to other parties, says Labor MP Bjørnar Skjæran.
– Should the largest party have the prime minister in a red-green government?
– We only have one candidate for prime minister, and that is Jonas Gahr Støre.
