Hundreds of people have died in recent weeks. Therefore, the Taliban refuse to accept a ceasefire.

There are two reasons why the Taliban do not lay down their arms, says the expert.

The peace negotiations in Afghanistan are in their second week in Qatar. At the conference hotel in Doha, the Afghan government and the Taliban are still arguing about the basis for starting negotiations.

Negotiators assured 10 days ago that the conflict “is not won by war.” They also said that they entered the negotiations with “total sincerity.”

The contrast is stark to what is actually happening on the ground: in recent days, a large number of deadly attacks from both sides have hit Afghanistan.

On Sunday, at least 57 people were killed among the Afghan security forces and 80 Taliban fighters were killed.

I never promised to stop the war

Before the talks, the Taliban vowed not to attack the Americans and their foreign allies. But attacks on Afghan security forces have intensified.

There are two reasons for the increase in violence, according to Kristian Berg Harpviken, a researcher at the Peace Research Institute (PRIO).

• Both the Taliban and the government want the strongest negotiating position possible.
• Everywhere there are people who want to undermine the negotiations.

Civilians were killed in bomb attacks

More than 30 people were killed in a bomb attack in Kunduz, in the north of the country, on Saturday. The government says the attack was aimed at the Taliban. But they have had to admit that several of the dead were civilians.

The attack came just before Afghan President Ashraf Ghani called for a humanitarian ceasefire.

“To protect our people, prevent violence and terrorist acts and achieve a dignified and lasting peace,” he said, according to Al Jazeera.

Therefore, the Taliban refuse to accept a ceasefire

But the Taliban insist on discussing the cause of the war before entering a ceasefire.

– It makes no sense to end a 20-year war in one hour. In our perspective, it would be more logical to discuss the scope of the war first. Then we can complete the ceasefire so that the problem is permanently resolved, Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem told Tolo News.

There are two reasons the Taliban will not lay down their arms now, according to Harpviken.

• If the Taliban give up military power, they will also give up much of their strength in negotiations.
• The Taliban are primarily a military organization. If they abandon the war, they run the risk of losing control internally very quickly. Working groups will be formed and some will move to the Islamic State (IS).

Aftenposten has asked a Taliban spokesman in Doha for comment, but has not responded.

– Important ceasefire to build trust

Before the talks, 5,000 imprisoned Taliban members were released. In return, the Taliban released 1,000 soldiers they had captured. For the Taliban, sitting at the negotiating table was a precondition.

– Now we hope that the Taliban will stop attacking, says the Ambassador of Afghanistan in Norway, Youssof Ghafoorzai. He believes it will be a confidence-building measure that will move the negotiations forward.

According to the ambassador, most of the causes of the conflict lie outside the borders of Afghanistan. Most countries in the region have not agreed on how to address security threats. But now they have seen to it that if peace is achieved in Afghanistan, it will be good for the entire region and beyond, he believes.

Great distance between the negotiating parties

According to Harpviken, there would have been no negotiations had it not been for the fact that the Americans have put enormous pressure on the Afghan government.

The government expects the Taliban to form a political party that will compete in democratic elections. They believe that the Taliban will not get any support and will therefore lose their importance.

The Taliban think they should go straight to key positions of power. They want to change the constitution so that sharia, Islamic law, has a completely different role than it does today.

– It’s a long distance. There will be a need for a time of maturing and orientation to reality, says Harpviken.

Trump wants quick success before the presidential election

The US special envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, urges all parties to significantly reduce the violence. Americans are impatient.

– If you ask the head of the White House, he probably wants a deal long before the election so that it can be a trump card in the American election campaign, says Harpviken.

Donald Trump would like to be successful in the election campaign. Therefore, the negotiations are likely to continue almost independently.

– They will stop and there will be setbacks, but in the foreseeable future I do not imagine that they will fall apart, says Harpviken.