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In the report, the National Institute of Public Health now considers the risk of spreading the infection to be high locally, moderate at the regional level, and low at the national level.
– We see more local outbreaks, this is expected, and we believe we will see more outbreaks of this type in the future. Outbreaks particularly among young adults can be large due to infection in social settings, says department director Line Vold at the National Institute of Public Health in a news release.
In the risk assessment, FHI also writes that now you must plan for a new national wave, even if the goal is to avoid this by following the strategy. If such a wave were to occur, it is more likely to occur in the fall and winter, when people gather indoors to a greater extent, according to the report.
– Since the virus is still present in Norway and the population is not immune, the epidemic is not over in Norway, it is said.
Predicts large outbreaks among young adults
However, according to the report, the most likely scenario in the future is constant local outbreaks of varying magnitude, and that outbreaks, particularly among young adults, can increase through infection in social settings.
Outbreaks can be caught late as symptoms in this age group are usually mild. In addition, we must be on the lookout for outbreaks related to meetings in associations, teams and denominations.
FHI further writes that in the coming years there is a persistent danger of local outbreaks or new waves of the epidemic and, therefore, they urge municipalities to plan for increasing capacity and maintaining it over time. Hospitals must plan for this as well, and both municipalities and health trusts must begin planning vaccines shortly.
Concerned about the infection situation in Bergen and Oslo
One risk factor mentioned in the report calls for infection tracking, and NIPH is most concerned about the situation in Bergen and Oslo.
– Spread among young adults can initiate further spread in these settings and infection detection is difficult. Of course, these young adults can also pass the infection to older people. We fear that the epidemic in these cities will stabilize at a higher level rather than decrease, they write in the report.
– Necessary with more regional attention
In addition, FHI believes that greater attention is needed to the danger of a transition from local to regional outbreaks.
– If an outbreak in one municipality has ramifications for several others, the management is significantly complicated and, therefore, also the danger of losing control.
They also point out that in sectors other than schools and kindergartens it is not appropriate for all sectors everywhere to be at the same level of action at all times.
Of the national measures, NIPH recommends a continuation of these measures:
* Hygiene measures: Hand and cough hygiene and self-isolation in case of illness
* Contact infection tracking and quarantine or other tracking
* Detection and isolation of infected during tests.
* Inbound quarantines from countries with significantly higher epidemics than Norway
* Measures to reduce contact (for example, a distance of one meter, restrictions on the number of people meeting at events and restaurants)
* Controlled visits to health institutions
* Open, reasoned and relevant communication with the population about the situation, the threat and the measures.
