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The final figures will not arrive until Wednesday. But as it stands now, the current week may have infection rates that are roughly the same level as when the fall wave peaked in November.
It shows preliminary calculations that were released by the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) on Saturday.
– Now we can be back to the level we were at when it changed in November. So there is a great danger that it will rise higher than that levelsays director Camilla Stoltenberg to NTB.
Higher infection rates
According to FHI calculations, the R infection rate has increased to 1.3. This means that an average of 100 infected people will infect 130 new ones.
R was calculated in early December at 1.1. The number must be below 1.0 for the total infection in society to decrease.
Stoltenberg notes that there has now been an increase in infection rates for at least three weeks. This comes after a series of new measures were introduced in November to end the second wave of infections. The new measures led to a flattening and a decline after a period of relatively rapid increase in infection in late October and early November.
The high number of infections this week comes despite the reduced scope of testing at Christmas and New Years. At the same time, the proportion of positive tests has increased, says Stoltenberg.
Fear of a new wave of infection
The director of NIPH is deeply concerned about development. The fear is that the spread of the infection will intensify when daily life begins again next week.
– We may see a decline after Christmas because we have less of the kind of social interaction we have at Christmas. But what we fear is a development like the one we have seen in many countries around us, Stoltenberg tells NTB.
He notes that several other countries have experienced a further increase in infection that has surpassed the first wave this fall.
– So it has become so much that in many ways it has gotten out of control, and they have implemented very strong measures.
– And do you fear then that it may also be necessary in Norway?
-Yes.
Greater contact at Christmas
In previous weeks, the infection has increased between 6% and 7% per week.
FHI experts believe that several factors may be behind the development. Social contact has increased throughout Christmas, both in the form of Christmas shopping and in the form of gatherings with family and friends and acquaintances.. At the same time, travel has increased, both within Norway and within and outside the country.
In addition, the FHI is closely monitoring new coronavirus mutations that appear to be more contagious. But it is too early to say how many virus mutations can explain the development of the infection in Norway.
